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Power load prediction method and device

A technology of power load and forecasting method, which is applied to load forecasting in circuit devices and AC networks, electrical components, etc., and can solve problems such as low accuracy of forecasting results

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-02
HEFEI SUNGROW RENEWABLE ENERGY SCI & TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

If this kind of long-term power load forecasting method for a large area is directly applied to the load forecasting of a small area such as a production enterprise, the accuracy of the forecast result will be very low

Method used

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  • Power load prediction method and device
  • Power load prediction method and device
  • Power load prediction method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0057] The current power forecasting algorithms are all aimed at long-term power load forecasting in larger areas, and cannot be directly applied to short-term power load forecasting scenarios in smaller areas. Therefore, the present application provides a power load forecasting method, which is used to predict the short-term power load situation in a small area. The power load forecasting method provided by this application obtains the first fitting relationship model between the first parameter and the load power corresponding to the time to be predicted in each historical cycle and the second fitting relationship model between the second parameter and the load power according to the historical data. combined relational model. Then, according to the two fitted relationship models, the first parameter factor and the second parameter factor corresponding to the moment to be predicted in each historical period are obtained. The normalized value of the load power is calculated ...

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Abstract

The application provides a power load prediction method and a device thereof. The method comprises: obtaining the first fitting relationship model and the second fitting relationship model corresponding to the time to be predicted by fitting according to historical data of the region to be predicted; then obtaining, according to the first fitting relationship model and the second fitting relationship model corresponding to the time to be predicted, the first parameter factor and the second parameter factor corresponding to the time to be predicted; calculating to obtain a load power naturalization value corresponding to the time to be predicted according to the load power corresponding to the time to be predicted in each historical period, the first parameter factor and the second parameter factor; and finally, obtaining the load power corresponding to the time to be predicted in the period to be predicted by using an exponential smoothing algorithm according to the load power naturalization value corresponding to the time to be predicted in each historical period. This method may be used to predict the load power at a certain moment in a certain small area.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power technology, and in particular relates to a power load forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is a series of forecasting work carried out on the object of power load. Its main work is to predict the time distribution and spatial distribution of future power load, and provide reliable decision-making basis for power system planning and operation. [0003] Most of the current power load forecasting algorithms are for load forecasting in larger areas, and most of them are for long-term forecasting, and few are for short-term forecasting. If this kind of long-term power load forecasting method for a large area is directly applied to the load forecasting of a small area such as a certain production enterprise, the accuracy of the forecast result will be very low. Contents of the invention [0004] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to pr...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00
CPCH02J3/00H02J3/003H02J2203/20
Inventor 周辉邹绍琨胡兵
Owner HEFEI SUNGROW RENEWABLE ENERGY SCI & TECH CO LTD
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