Power grid physical asset evaluation method based on regression fitting model

Abstract

The invention relates to a power grid physical asset evaluation method based on a regression fitting model. The power grid physical asset evaluation method comprises the steps: obtaining the historical PMS data and ERP data of to-be-evaluated physical assets of a power grid, so as to build a physical asset data set; building an asset evaluation index system comprising four first-level evaluation indexes including a scale structure, utilization efficiency, a health level and retirement scrapping; in combination with the physical asset data set, calculating to obtain each evaluation index value;and according to the evaluation index value, fitting a relationship between the equipment defect rate and the equipment service age by adopting a regression method to obtain an equipment defect rateprediction value, and comparing the main transformer defect rate with the average load rate to obtain a healthy average load rate interval of the main transformer. Compared with the prior art, the power grid physical asset evaluation method establishes a physical asset evaluation index system with effective and reliable data, and can predict the equipment defect rate based on the regression fitting model while broadening the main transformer load analysis content, thus providing a powerful support for subsequent operation and maintenance work, and facilitating optimization of physical asset allocation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of grid equipment evaluation, in particular to a grid physical asset evaluation method based on a regression fitting model. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's power grid, the number and value of power grid assets have also increased. The traditional extensive power equipment asset management model has certain shortcomings, which is not conducive to the operation, maintenance, renewal and transformation of the power grid. For power grid enterprises, the management of physical assets is still a relatively weak link. Although the grid assets of the State Grid Corporation of China have achieved the consistency of accounts, cards and objects through preliminary basic work, it is only the consistency of physical objects. For the current assets as a whole status (including asset operating status and asset economic data), lack of real-time information and effective monitoring, a...

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Problems solved by technology

All asset management strategies are generally based on qualitative analysis, lacking quantitative analysis and data support; asset management technology strategies are difficult to estimate the corresponding financial pressure and economic impact on company operations

[0003] At present, a certain degree of research on physical asset management has been carried out at home and abroad, and certain management practices have also been carried out. As a method combining quantitative and qualitative methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process has been widely used in the evaluation of physical assets of power grids. For example, the Chinese patent CN108537437A discloses a method for evaluating physical assets of a power grid based on the analytic hierarchy process. It establishes a technical index system from four aspects of failure, defect, outage, and operating efficiency, and evaluates the health status of physical assets of the power grid according to the weight of each index. When the patent evaluates the defect of power grid equipment, it is only calculated by counting the duration of the defect, which cannot guarantee the reliability and accuracy of the defect rate of power grid equipment, which may lead to a large deviation between the evaluation result and the actual existence

[0004] Among the existing research results, the research on the evaluation and management of physical assets from the perspective of the entire life cycle of assets is relatively rich, but they mainly focus on the application of the life cycle cost method and the research on asset management theory. For the asset evaluation in asset management There are few studies on the construction of the specific index system: some studies have constructed the asset life cycle management framework system of the State Grid Corporation from the aspects of management strategy, work process, evaluation and assessment, and guarantee mechanism according to the asset characteristics and management status of the State Grid Corporation. This paper describes how to construct the index system from the three aspects of safety, efficiency and life cycle cost, but does not study the specific composition of the index system in depth, but only puts forward the framework of the index system; On the one hand, an index calculation method is designed, but the index is single and unsystematic, and does not constitute an index system. For example, Chinese patent CN109711683A discloses a method and device for evaluating the safety performance of power grid assets in the whole life cycle. The safety performance of power grid assets is evaluated from three aspects: cost index, efficiency index and safety index, and there is a lack of evaluation on the scale structure, health level and decommissioning of power grid assets; The asset management index system of power supply enterprises has been constructed in three aspects, but the index setting still does not meet the actual needs of asset management of power grid companies

[0005] In addition, the current index system used for power grid physical asset evaluation usually includes scale structure index, health level index, utilization efficiency index and decommissioning and scrapping index. The lack of analysis of the average load rate of the main transformer is not conducive to optimizing the allocation of physical assets, and cannot improve the lean level of physical asset management of the power grid.

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