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Regional power market multi-order credit risk early warning method

A technology for electricity market and risk early warning, applied in the field of credit risk, which can solve problems such as related capacity loss

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-22
SHENYANG INST OF AUTOMATION - CHINESE ACAD OF SCI +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a multi-stage credit risk early warning method for the regional power market, aiming at the phenomenon that some nodes in the power market have untrustworthy behaviors that lead to related capabilities or economic losses of other power market nodes in the power trading market, and solve regional Early warning of multi-stage credit risk in electricity market

Method used

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  • Regional power market multi-order credit risk early warning method
  • Regional power market multi-order credit risk early warning method
  • Regional power market multi-order credit risk early warning method

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Embodiment Construction

[0045] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0046] like figure 1 Shown is the flow chart of the method of the present invention.

[0047] A multi-stage credit risk early warning method for a regional power market, characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0048]Set the value range for the basic indicators of the decision-making nodes in the electricity market; select sample data according to the basic indicators of the decision-making nodes; use the expert evaluation method to assign corresponding weights to the basic indicators, input the sample data into the OWA operator, and obtain the correlation matrix A ;Establish a multi-order credit risk effect model of the electricity market based on IIM; combine the correlation matrix A with the first-order risk effect value c generated after the dishonesty behavior in the electricity trading market i Input the multi-order cre...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a regional power market multi-order credit risk early warning method. The method comprises the steps of setting a value interval for a basic index of a decision node in a power market; selecting sample data; allocating corresponding weights to the basic indexes, and inputting the sample data into an OWA operator to obtain an incidence matrix; establishing an IIM-based power market multi-order credit risk effect model; inputting the incidence matrix and the first-order risk effect value into an IIM-based power market multi-order credit risk effect model to obtain a multi-order credit risk effect value of each node in the power market; and comparing and analyzing the multi-order credit risk effect value of each node in the power market, and distinguishing the protection level of each node. According to the invention, the waterfall risk effect of the untrusted behavior of the transaction subject on the regional power transaction market is reduced, the propagationand overflow of the credit risk of the regional power transaction market subject are inhibited, and the safety and stability of the state grid transaction market are maintained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of credit risk, in particular to a multi-stage credit risk early warning method in a regional power market. Background technique [0002] In 2015, the "Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Electric Power System" were promulgated, marking that the new power improvement has entered the practical operation stage. The introduction of market mechanisms can effectively improve the operating efficiency of the electricity market and optimize resource allocation, but at the same time the electricity market also faces a large number of uncertain risks, and the research on the credit risk supervision system of the regional electricity trading market is still in the exploratory stage. The "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Construction of the Electricity Market" document clearly puts forward the requirements for esta...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/00G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q30/0185G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 胡博王忠锋张涛张宏宇金鹏李力刚黄剑龙喻海飞关明李言谙宁辽逸金宇坤李增李娉婷梁凯
Owner SHENYANG INST OF AUTOMATION - CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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