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Short-term photovoltaic power generation power prediction method

A technology of photovoltaic power generation and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of prediction, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., and can solve the problem of affecting the safety and stability of the power system, and the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of the output power of photovoltaic power stations is not satisfactory, etc. problem, to achieve the effect of preventing over-fitting, improving low prediction accuracy, and improving prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-07-03
NANJING UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problem that the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of the output power of the existing photovoltaic power station has not yet reached a satisfactory level, which will still affect the safety and stability of the power system operation to a certain extent

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] Attached below Figure 1-5 , the technical solution of this patent is described in further detail.

[0039] A method for predicting short-term photovoltaic power generation, comprising the steps of:

[0040] Step 1: Acquisition of prediction samples: Based on the meteorological factors information of a certain day and region for testing and training data, the data resolution is 15 minutes, and the data types include ambient temperature, ambient humidity, irradiance, wind speed, wind direction, board temperature, and temperature difference , air pressure;

[0041] Step 2: Preprocessing of sample data: After obtaining the data, due to the incompleteness and noise of the data, it is necessary to preprocess the data. The main process of data preprocessing is as follows: figure 1 Shown:

[0042] (1) According to the collected data filtering, the abnormal data is deleted, and the data is normalized at the same time to obtain the prediction samples. The formula for normal...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term photovoltaic power generation power prediction method. The invention mainly aims to solve the problem that solar photovoltaic power generation is affected by a plurality of random factors. Therefore, the output power of the photovoltaic system is uncertain. The invention provides a comprehensive power generation power prediction method based on PCA-Stacking. The method mainly comprises the following steps of training data acquisition, data preprocessing, division of four weather types (sunny days, cloudy days, cloudy days and rainy days) according to characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, PCA dimension reduction processing, Stacking model training, Stacking model prediction and error analysis.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a method for predicting short-term photovoltaic power generation power. Background technique [0002] Solar energy is one of the most competitive green energy in the future. At present, developed countries in the world attach great importance to the development and utilization of solar energy resources through the development of photovoltaic power generation industry. Photovoltaic power generation uses the photoelectric effect of semiconductor materials to directly convert solar energy into electrical energy. Photovoltaic power generation is volatile and intermittent, and the grid-connected operation of large-scale photovoltaic power plants will affect the safe, stable and economical operation of the power system. Predicting the output power of photovoltaic power plants will help the grid dispatching department to coordinate the coordination of co...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00G06F18/23G06F18/2135G06F18/2148G06F18/2411Y02A30/00
Inventor 岳东朱晓飞窦春霞
Owner NANJING UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM
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