Mountain torrent disaster comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation method based on multi-dimensional set information

Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain torrent disaster comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation method based on multi-dimensional set information. The mountain torrent disaster comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation method comprises the following steps: step 1, mountain torrent risk evaluation based on corrected disaster rainfall; step 2, mountain torrent risk assessment based on water level-flow; step 3, performing mountain torrent risk assessment based on the flooding range, the flow velocity and the water depth; 4, determining a mountain torrent risk level; step 5, dynamically evaluating the mountain torrent risk; and step 6, uncertainty analysis of a mountain torrent risk assessment result. The mountain torrent disaster comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation method based on multi-dimensional set information is provided. The mountain torrent risk assessment method is suitable for mountain torrent risk refined assessment in areas without data, assessment indexes are more scientific and reliable, dynamic assessment of mountain torrent risks is carried out based on real-time monitoring data or simulation forecast data of models, and a more effective decision-making basis is provided for mountain torrent disaster defense.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of mountain torrent defense, in particular to a method for dynamic assessment of comprehensive risk of mountain torrent disasters based on multi-dimensional aggregated information, which is mainly used for mountain torrent risk assessment and early warning decision-making. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disaster is the main disaster that causes casualties among the current natural disasters in our country, and it is also the difficulty and weak link in our country's flood defense work. It has the characteristics of multiple points and wide areas, obvious seasonality and regionality, frequent outbreaks, rapid disaster formation, and strong destructive power. Since 2006, the State Council approved the "National Mountain Flood Disaster Prevention and Control Plan", marking that the mountain torrent disaster prevention and control work has entered a new stage. After 10 years of construction of e...

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Problems solved by technology

The assessment based on the risk of hazard factors is based on the analysis of hazard factors, delineating the hazard zone and hazard level, and establishing a prediction model for the range of the hazard zone. However, the determination of the weight of each hazard factor is highly subjective, and the level of the hazard zone There is no unified standard for division, which is not conducive to popularization and application; vulnerability analysis is to explore its sensitivity and resistance from the perspective of the hazard-bearing body, and evaluate the vulnerability of the hazard-bearing body through matrix methods, index methods, and curve methods. The assessment of body vulnerability needs to consider many factors, and the complex relationship among them is difficult to express with a model, and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed due to the influence of differences in natural or social factors; critical rainfall analysis is very important for mountain torrent disaster prevention and control, and its basic idea is When the rainfall in a certain period of time in a small watershed reaches or exceeds a certain critical value, the resulting flood is exactly equal to the disaster flow, which is used for risk assessment. Can be popularized and applied; more factors are considered in comprehensive risk assessment, and there are various methods, without forming a unified normative and theoretical framework, it is not suitable for application, and it is currently limited to the research stage

[0004] Therefore, the applicability of various flash flood risk assessment methods is not strong at present, and the application effect is poor, and flash floods mostly occur in areas without data, which is difficult to be applied in practice and cannot provide help for flash flood warning and decision-making

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