Hydrological drought assessment method in climatic change scene

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrological drought assessment method in a climatic change scene, which comprises the following steps: firstly, collecting meteorological, hydrological and topographic dataof a research area, and constructing an SWAT hydrological model database; obtaining a future meteorological sequence through a multivariable deviation correction method based on M global climate modes, and inputting the future meteorological sequence into an SWAT model to obtain M groups of future runoff sequences; calculating M groups of standardized runoff indexes, and extracting drought characteristic values through a run-length theory; calculating a key index PI influencing the regional drought, taking the key index PI as a covariable, and constructing a two-variable hydrological drought joint probability distribution function under a non-consistency condition; based on the most probable combined scene, separately solving drought duration and intensity of M groups of historical reference time periods and future time periods in different joint recurrence periods; and based on the medians of the M groups of most probable scenes, quantizing the change of the drought characteristic values, and evaluating the influence of climate change on the future hydrological drought situation of the drainage basin. The method is good in evaluation reliability, and provides a practical value fordealing with future climate disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrology, and relates to a drought forecasting and early warning technology, in particular to a hydrological drought evaluation method under a climate change scenario. Background technique [0002] As one of the most widely distributed, most frequent and most severe natural disasters in the world, drought events seriously threaten global food security, water supply security and ecological security. Considering practical application requirements, drought is often studied in categories (meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought, socioeconomic drought, and ecological drought). Among them, hydrological drought generally refers to the phenomenon that the accumulation of precipitation shortage to a certain extent leads to the reduction of surface runoff and river flow, resulting in the normal habitat of the river and the abnormal relationship between the resource transformation relatio...

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Problems solved by technology

However, at this stage, there is no literature that fully considers the driving and controlling effect of rainfall on hydrological drought under the background of climate warming, and considers it as an explanatory variable in the time-varying parameter model of drought situation, and fails to conduct research on the driving mechanism of drought from the perspective of the driving mechanism of drought. Assessment Study on Hydrological Drought

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