The invention discloses a method for deriving a lead safety value based on an AAL model of Monte Carlo
simulation, and relates to the technical field of data derivation, and the method is technically characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, collecting data and carrying out
statistical analysis; s2, adjusting an AAL model: establishing the AAL model through R
software, inputting or modifying environmental medium lead concentration,
exposure parameters and pharmacokinetic parameters in Excel, setting a
lead exposure mode and operating a program, and simulating absorption, distribution,
metabolism and
excretion of lead by using a
differential equation; s3, calculating an external lead intake value through a
bisection method; and S4, selecting an uncertain coefficient, and calculating a health guidance value. According to the method, reference can be provided for dietary
lead exposure risk assessment, in addition, the AAL model of Monte Carlo
simulation can predict the blood lead level of each age according to external environment
lead exposure of people, and therefore risk management personnel can utilize the model to carry out biological monitoring and take prevention and control measures according to
monitoring data.