Method for quantitatively pre-evaluating direct economic loss of storm surge disaster of typhoon

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for quantitatively pre-evaluating the direct economic loss of storm surge disaster of typhoon, which comprises: (1) using a statistical method as a mathematical tool to establish a model, searching for statistical rules from a certain number of historical disaster samples, and establishing a statistical mathematical model; and (2) inputting various parameters into the statistical mathematical model for evaluation before the oncoming of storm surge of typhoon. The invention further combines the method and an information issue platform to realize computerization and can evaluate the scope of possible direct economic loss caused by typhoon through the introduction of numerical mode calculation prior to the period of being influenced by typhoon. The quantitative pre-evaluation of the direct economic loss caused by typhoon and storm surge particularly has important realistic meaning, and the application of the method is favorable for the development of coastal disaster prevention and reduction work in storm surge disaster hotspots of China.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorology, and relates to a pre-assessment technology for direct economic losses caused by meteorological disasters, in particular to a quantitative pre-evaluation technology for direct economic losses caused by typhoons and storm surges. Background technique [0002] my country is an area with a high incidence of storm surge disasters, among which typhoon storm surges cause the most severe disasters. Taking Shanghai as an example, Shanghai is hit by typhoons almost every year. The 6207 typhoons in 1962 caused 3 billion yuan in damages to Shanghai. 1 direct economic losses. China's coastal areas have not only suffered severe storm surge disasters in history, but in the context of climate change, disaster preparedness for storm surge disasters is also facing increasingly severe challenges. [0003] If the direct economic losses caused by storm surge disasters can be assessed, it will undoubtedly greatl...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, my country's quantitative pre-assessment technology for direct economic losses caused by typhoons (including tropical cyclones) and storm surges is still in the exploratory stage, and there is a lack of effective technical or scientific achievements

[0005] The more representative research results abroad are the papers of Vineet Kumar Jain, Rachel Davidson et al.: Modeling changes in hurrican risk over time (published in the American Nature Harzards Review magazine, May2005). The disaster pre-assessment model used in this paper is the American The HAZARS-MU application system developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates the annual economic loss due to hurricanes based on the peak wind speed of the hurricane, the wind resistance capacity of buildings, and the density distribution of buildings. However, the model The problem is: need a real-time update, high-resolution building database

However, factors such as the resilience of flood control facilities and the level of economic development are also not considered.

In addition, this method only considers the water level factor of storm surge increase, and it is difficult to estimate the losses caused by meteorological factors such as strong wind and rain

Moreover, this model is mainly based on the special economic structure such as the high proportion of aquaculture in Haikou Bay, so it is difficult for this method to be used for reference by other regions.

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