Evidence theory-based multi-source information fusion risk analysis method

A technology of multi-source information fusion and risk analysis, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc. real-time effects

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-04-27
SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

In the application of D-S evidence theory, two basic problems are involved: the first problem is the generation of basic probability assignment function (BPA); the second prob...

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  • Evidence theory-based multi-source information fusion risk analysis method
  • Evidence theory-based multi-source information fusion risk analysis method
  • Evidence theory-based multi-source information fusion risk analysis method

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] The embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below. This embodiment is implemented on the premise of the technical solution of the present invention, and detailed implementation methods and specific operating procedures are provided, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the following implementation example. This example is an example of China's food security risk assessment process. The specific process of this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0039] (1) Determination of risk system indicators and their weights

[0040] First, determine the indicators of the food security risk assessment system as follows: x1 grain output (10,000 tons), x2 grain sown area (1,000 hectares), x3 per capita sown area (square meters per person), x4 the proportion of agricultural added value to GDP (%), x5 effective irrigated area of ​​arable land (thousand hectares), x6 grain price index (%), x7 per capita grain possession (kg), ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an evidence theory-based multi-source information fusion risk analysis method, which belongs to the technical field of information processing. The method comprises the following steps of: determining an index and a weight of a risk system by using an analytic hierarchy process; dividing a risk level by using a mean principle in a statistical method and generating basic probability assignment; fusing basic probability assignment by a weighted fusion method which effectively processes conflicting evidence; determining a main focal element of a fusion result; and obtaining the risk level of the risk system according to the corresponding relationship between the risk level and a basic probability assignment function focal element so as to realize risk analysis. The method has high generality and the advantages of low calculation complexity and high instantaneity and can be conveniently applied to risk evaluation of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method in the technical field of information processing, in particular to a multi-source information fusion risk analysis method based on evidence theory. Background technique [0002] Risk analysis is a means of identifying and measuring risks, and developing and selecting management solutions to address these risks. It includes three aspects of risk identification, risk assessment and risk management. Among them, risk assessment is to quantify the possible risks and consequences of potential problems and determine their severity. It involves the comprehensive application of various models, and finally obtains a comprehensive impression of system risk. There are many methods of risk assessment, which can be summarized into three categories: quantitative risk assessment methods, qualitative risk assessment methods, and qualitative and quantitative assessment methods. Among them, quantitative analysis methods mainly...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 苏晓燕许培达邓勇
Owner SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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