Method for predicting tide-bound water level by combining statistical model and power model

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting tide-bound water level by combining a statistic model and a power model. The method comprises the following steps of obtaining a tidal harmonic constant; predicting the astronomical tide and water rising level; obtaining predicted tide-bound water level Ls based on the statistic model; calculating and obtaining predicted wind field results and open boundary conditions of the tide according to an atmosphere prediction model; taking the wind field results and the open boundary conditions as a forcing field; using an ocean dynamics model to calculate predicted tide-bound water level Lm containing the astronomical tide and the water rising level; establishing a best tide-bound water level prediction formula based on the veracity analysis on the prediction results of the two models under all time scale and meteorological condition; providing the prediction results on final tide-bound water level L; and displaying the prediction results in realtime by a visualized technology. The method organically couples with monitoring data of weather and sea level, the statistic prediction method of sea level values, an atmosphere and ocean dynamics model and a real-time visualized system so as to achieve the requirement of exactly and quickly predicting the tide-bound water level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of marine science and marine engineering, in particular to a method for forecasting the tidal water level of a harbor or sea. Background technique [0002] Since my country's reform and opening up, the import and export trade has increased rapidly. Especially since the 21st century, the pressure of ships entering and leaving ports has become increasingly prominent. On the other hand, due to the increasing number of specific weather anomalies brought about by global climate change, ports and waterway areas are no exception. severe challenge. The tidal water level refers to a certain high tide water level that can be used for navigation at a certain time interval. It is often required to refer to this value in the design of harbor engineering and the selection of waterways. Although this value mostly appears before and after high tide, due to many uncertain factors such as weather, scientifically mastering it still ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the increasing number of climate anomalies, the accuracy and timeliness of the traditional tidal water level estimation method can no longer meet the current demand for tidal water level forecasting.

The main reason is that on the one hand, the empirical method is based on a relatively weak physical basis, and it is difficult to accurately understand the impact of large-scale weather and marine environment changes on the local tidal water level; Due to the limitations of basic research, the accuracy of empirical formula estimation cannot be replaced in a short period of time

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