Wind/solar power prediction method with variable prediction resolution

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind/solar power prediction method with a variable prediction resolution. The method comprises the following steps: firstly obtaining the resolution of a needed prediction data according to a wind/solar energy management system, computing the similarity of historic weather data and future weather data in variation tendency by extracting historic weather data of a plurality of days before the current prediction moment under the resolution, computing the weather data variation tendency weight in the next 24 hours under the prediction resolution, computing the prediction value variation tendency measures of the weather data according to the weight; and finally predicting the weather data prediction value in the next 24 hours under the needed prediction resolution. Therefore, the power prediction results in a short time interval at different power prediction resolution conditions can be obtained according to the numerical weather prediction data with low resolution and the historic data to provide powerful data support for the energy management of a wind/solar hybrid generation system; the method provided by the invention has important significance for guaranteeing the stabilization of the output power of the wind/solar hybrid generation system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind-solar hybrid power generation, and more specifically, relates to a wind-solar power prediction method with variable resolution for predicting the power generation capacity of power generation components in a certain period of time in the future in the energy management of a wind-solar hybrid power generation system. Background technique [0002] The global energy shortage and increasingly serious environmental pollution problems have made wind power and solar energy, as renewable and clean energy sources, more and more attention in the world. [0003] Wind-solar hybrid power generation utilizes the natural complementarity of wind energy and solar energy, making its reliability and economy higher than independent wind power generation systems and photovoltaic power generation systems. The output power fluctuates randomly. The energy management of the wind-solar hybrid power generation system is the k...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] 1. The power prediction method based on the physical model is affected by the model input numerical weather prediction calculation grid resolution and model. At present, the domestic numerical weather prediction data resolution is 1 hour, which cannot meet the energy management requirements and the prediction resolution is less than 1 hour. Wind-solar hybrid power generation system

[0006] 2. The resolution of the power prediction method based on historical data can meet the requirements of the wind-solar hybrid power generation system, but this method requires a large amount of historical data. When the prediction resolution required by the wind-solar hybrid power generation system changes, it is necessary to select historical data at different time intervals Sequential re-establishment of the model cannot meet the requirements of wind-solar hybrid power generation systems when the prediction resolution changes frequently

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