Supercritical flood risk analysis method
A risk analysis, supercritical technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problem of rarely involving risk characteristics, multi-variable conditional probability or joint distribution solutions, and cannot be applied to supercritical floods. analysis, etc.
Active Publication Date: 2015-05-13
LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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The methods currently applied to the utilization of flood resources and the analysis of flood volumes that are difficult to control during the flood season cannot be applied to the field of supercritical flood analysis. Therefore, there are few reports on the current evaluation of supercritical flood volumes, and there are few reports on its risk characteristics.
In addition, the current research on multivariate flood risk analysis is mostly obtained by solving the conditional probability or joint distribution of risk variables, but it is extremely difficult to solve the multivariate conditional probability or joint It is extremely unfavorable to reveal and explain the flood risk and its disaster mechanism
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[0075] According to the above method, different engineering non-engineering measures, different water quality differences, and multivariable supercritical flood risks are analyzed. The present invention takes the flood inflow of Liujiaxia Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in 1981 and the flood in Bajiazui Reservoir in the Jinghe River Basin in 1988 as the typical inflow process, and the flood control system composed of the reservoir project and the embankment project of the downstream hydrological control section As the research object, taking the reservoir inflow, runoff sediment concentration and the precipitation in the reservoir control basin as the influencing factors of supercritical flood, the supercritical flood quantity and coupled supercritical flood quantity and water quality side of the reservoir project and its downstream embankment project are obtained. For the critical flood volume, the supercritical flood risk fuzzy membership function of coupli...
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A supercritical flood risk analysis method comprises the steps of 1, determining the supercritical flood discharge on the water yield side for non-engineering measures of different projects; 2, determining the supercritical flood discharge on the water quality side for non-engineering measures of different projects; 3, determining the supercritical flood discharge on the coupling water yield-water quality side for non-engineering measures of different projects; 4, establishing a supercritical flood risk fuzzy subjection function for non-engineering measures of different projects (water yield side) and different water quality levels (water quality side) so as to obtain a supercritical flood risk fuzzy subjection function for the coupling water yield-water quality side; 5, bringing forward supercritical flood risk measurement with non-engineering measures of different projects, water quality difference and multiple variables considered comprehensively based on the Pearsion-III distribution theory and information entropy theory, and determining the supercritical flood risk. The method is higher in adaptability and logical, operation is easy, calculating efficiency and calculating precision are high, and a calculation result is more comprehensive and more scientific.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of flood risk analysis, in particular to a supercritical flood risk analysis method. Background technique [0002] Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. 40% of the world's disaster losses are caused by floods. The property loss caused by floods in my country ranks first among all kinds of disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to reveal the mechanism of flood risk disasters and reduce floods. Disaster loss has become an important research topic in the fields of hydrology and water resources. [0003] Supercritical flood refers to the part of the flood that exceeds the flood control-Xinli joint operation capacity of the flood control project but still has no flood disaster, and has a high flood risk value. Flood control-Xingli combined use refers to the use of flood resources when and only when the flood is controllable (low flood risk) in the process of flood control use, so it is di...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 李勋贵魏霞张律吕
Owner LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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