Epidemic prevention and control oriented population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method

A technology of contact structure and population dynamics, which is applied in the fields of instruments, computing, and electronic digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to track large-scale population contacts for a long time, and the lack of dynamic change patterns of population contacts.

A technology of contact structure and population dynamics, which is applied in the fields of instruments, computing, and electronic digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to track large-scale population contacts for a long time, and the lack of dynamic change patterns of population contacts.

CN105335604AInactive Publication Date: 2016-02-17JILIN UNIV
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  • Epidemic prevention and control oriented population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method
  • Epidemic prevention and control oriented population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method
  • Epidemic prevention and control oriented population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method

Examples

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example 1

[0106] Example 1: Method verification and application demonstration based on real data

[0107] This example uses Hong Kong's 2011 population statistics and 2009 Hong Kong H1N1 influenza surveillance data to verify the effectiveness of the above method and demonstrate the application of this method in setting the school start time.

[0108] Figure 4 The red curve is the actual outbreak of H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong in 2009. Based on the population dynamic contact structure M obtained by this method, the prediction of the epidemic transmission model is shown in the blue curve, which is very similar to the real outbreak curve, which shows that this method accurately obtains the population dynamic contact structure. The black curve is the prediction result of the existing classical method [1], and the prediction result is quite different from the real outbreak process. Using the population dynamic contact structure M obtained by this method, the simulated influenza outbreak p...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an epidemic prevention and control oriented population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method. The method comprises the following content: a method for modeling a population dynamic contact structure by using a metapopulation based third-order tensor; a method for constructing a spatial mode of the population contact structure by using an analog simulation technology based on population statistics data; and a method for inferring a time mode of the population contact structure by using a data mining technology based on epidemic monitoring data. The invention provides a brand-new and efficient method for modeling and discovery of the population contact structure. Compared with an existing method, the method provided by the invention has the following advantages: (1) the population dynamic contact structure modeling and discovery method is provided, and the dynamic contact structure better conforms to a contact mode of human being; (2) the method can be applied to modeling and discovery of large-scale population contact structures; (3) the method has the characteristic of low cost; and (4) the obtained population dynamic contact structure can accurately predict epidemic outbreak and planning of epidemic prevention and control measures.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling and discovery method of a population contact structure, which belongs to the cross field of information technology and public health, especially the fields of data mining, pattern recognition and computational epidemiology. Background technique [0002] Epidemic infectious diseases are referred to as epidemics for short, and the continuous outbreaks of epidemics have caused incalculable losses to human society. Epidemic spread models can model the dynamic process of epidemic outbreaks, help people simulate, predict, and control epidemic outbreaks, and are effective tools for preventing and controlling epidemic outbreaks and reducing the loss of human life and property. [0003] Person-to-person contact is a common way for epidemics to spread. In computational epidemiology, contact between individuals is often referred to as "human contact", which is defined as "the interaction between different individuals exposed t...

Claims

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Application Information

Patent Timeline
17 Feb 2016
Publication
CN105335604A
IPC
G06F19/00
Inventors
杨博; θ£΄ηΊ’ζ–Œ