Photovoltaic power station irradiance prediction method

A technology of photovoltaic power station and forecasting method, which is applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve the problems of inability to predict irradiance in substations

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-03-02
XUCHANG XJ SOFTWARE TECH +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, and propose a photovoltaic power station irradiance prediction method, which solves the technical problem that the substation cannot predict the irradiance according to different weather conditions

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  • Photovoltaic power station irradiance prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0041] A photovoltaic power plant irradiance prediction method, the steps are as follows:

[0042] Step (1), obtain the historical irradiance data of the area where the photovoltaic power station is located, and substitute it into the established irradiance model to calculate the theoretical irradiance value of the area where the photovoltaic power station is located; through the collection of theoretical irradiance values Optimize the historical irradiation data, and then get the original data value X i (t)(i=1,2,...,m), m is the number of data sets, the specific method is as follows:

[0043] (1) The irradiance model of the photovoltaic power station established is:

[0044]

[0045] Among them, E is the extraterrestrial irradiance value; E sc is the solar constant, the value is 1367W / m 2 ;(r 0 / r) 2 is the sun-earth distance correc...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power station irradiance prediction method. Historical irradiance data of a region in which a photovoltaic power station is positioned are acquired and substituted in an established irradiance model so that original data of irradiance are acquired; a clustering data subset with highly similar characteristics is formed by the original data with the same weather type by utilizing Euclidean distance and an established category target value function and acts as sample data; and an irradiance prediction model of the region in which the photovoltaic power station is positioned is established, and a training sample set is selected from the sample data and substituted in the irradiance prediction model so that irradiance of weather within time periods to be predicted is obtained. Various influence factors of weather are fully considered and divided into various categories so that fitting of the weather condition of a prediction day can be better performed, and accuracy of the predicted irradiance can be greatly enhanced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the irradiance of a photovoltaic power station, which belongs to the technical field of new energy control. Background technique [0002] As an important parameter to measure photovoltaic power generation, solar irradiance is very important for the planning, operation and control of photovoltaic power generation. Solar irradiance is also the main factor affecting the power of photovoltaic power generation. If the solar irradiance can be predicted more accurately, it will be of great significance to the prediction of the power generation of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants, so that photovoltaic power producers can arrange power plants reasonably. The operation plan can optimize the power grid dispatching, thereby reducing the operating cost of the power system and ensuring the economical operation of the power grid. [0003] In terms of irradiance prediction methods, there are mainly traditional ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陶颍军孔波利崔丽艳沈志广李现伟樊鹏吴双惠唐宇陈斌张秀娟段太钢高建琨胡叶宾李燕熊焰
Owner XUCHANG XJ SOFTWARE TECH
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