Dynamic water storage capacity-based flood forecasting method

Abstract

The invention provides a dynamic water storage capacity-based flood forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps: 1) TOPMODEL model parameters in a natural period are calibrated; 2) the water storage capacity of unsaturated layer soil with influences of a water conservancy project considered is determined; 3) on the basis of the model parameters in the natural state, TOPMODEL model parameters A1, A2 and B for the water storage capacity of the unsaturated layer soil with influences of the water conservancy project considered are calibrated according to actually-measured session flood; and 4) the well-calibrated parameters are adopted for carrying out flood forecasting on the watershed. According to the flood forecasting method of the invention, influences of water storage and water drainage of the water conservancy project are considered through changing the water storage capacity of the unsaturated layer soil, and the TOPMODEL model for flood forecasting is improved. When the method of the invention is adopted for flood forecasting, the flood under the influences of the water conservancy project can be better simulated, the timeliness and the accuracy of flood forecasting are improved, a basis is provided for decision making by flood prevention and control departments at all levels, the flood risks are reduced, and flood loss is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting and relates to a flood forecasting method based on dynamic water storage capacity. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the intensification of human activities and the reclamation of farmland, a large number of wetlands have been degraded. In order to improve the utilization rate of water resources and alleviate the problem of water shortage in the region, a large number of small and medium-sized water conservancy and water and soil conservation projects have been built in many river basins. These water conservancy projects rapidly changed the natural appearance of the watershed, and then changed the original law of flood volume and process, which made the accuracy of the original flood forecast model of the watershed decrease. Previous studies have pointed out that the runoff of watersheds affected by water conservancy projects has a clear downward trend, but the amount a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

These water conservancy projects rapidly changed the natural appearance of the river basin, and then changed the original law of flood volume and process, which made the accuracy of the original flood forecast model of the river basin decrease.

Existing studies have pointed out that the runoff of watersheds affected by water conservancy projects has a clear downward trend, but the amount and process of the impact of water conservancy projects on floods are still not very clear

At present, there are still some limitations in the study of flood forecasting under the influence of hydraulic engineering. The specific performance is that most of the lumped models correct the model by artificially adjusting the model parameters or increasing the parameters affected by human activities, and the physical meaning is not yet clear; The accuracy requirements are too high, and the watershed data are difficult to meet

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