This application discloses a method and
system for predicting reservoir
bank landslides induced by reservoir impoundment based on the principle of
refraction. The method includes: obtaining the natural
slope angle above water in the
natural state and the stable
slope angle underwater in the saturated state of the target reservoir
bank slope; introducing and calculating the
refractive index to characterize the degree of difference between the natural
slope angle above water and the stable slope angle
underwater; the introduction of the
refractive index is based on the understanding of
landslide mechanisms: during reservoir impoundment, the water surface acts as an interface for abrupt changes in the physical and mechanical properties of the soil and rock
mass, leading to a discontinuous reconstruction of the slope's stable morphology with the water surface as the boundary. The reservoir impoundment process follows the principle of
mass conservation, and the actual inclination angle of the failure surface, instead of the natural slope angle above water, better reflects the mechanical state of the slope during
instability; based on the value of the
refractive index, the
instability risk and progressive failure range of the target reservoir
bank slope during reservoir impoundment are qualitatively or quantitatively predicted. This application improves the early
risk identification and dynamic warning capabilities for reservoir bank landslides induced by impoundment.