Econometrics and heuristic intelligence combined automobile sales prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an econometrics and heuristic intelligence combined automobile sales prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps of: storing data required by automobile sales prediction through establishing a database, wherein data comprises economic indexes, brand automobile sales and automobile sales, which are called as prediction variables; connecting the database and the automobile sales prediction system through the data so as to obtain required prediction variables, and verifying structural relationships between the variables so as to obtain endogenousvariables with a long-term equilibrium and causal relationship; establishing a vector error correction model for the endogenous variables; optimizing coefficient of a prediction model by utilizing a heuristic intelligence algorithm; and finally storing the obtained prediction model into a sales prediction application system, and generating a sales prediction result after inputting corresponding economic variables, brand automobile sales data and former-year automobile sales data. According to the method and system, a model suitable for long-term prediction is found, and the characteristic of high precision of the heuristic intelligence can be utilized at the same time, so that the automobile sales prediction precision is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of automobile sales forecasting, in particular to an automobile sales forecasting method and system combining econometrics and heuristic intelligence. Background technique [0002] The automobile industry is the pillar industry of the national economy. It is closely related to people's life and has become an indispensable part of modern society. However, competition among automakers has been growing rapidly as the economy develops. Manufacturers are forced to study market mechanism factors and use scientific methods to make correct market forecasts to help them overcome competition in the industry. In the face of efficient management of resources and revenue maximization, it is imperative that production activities can be correctly planned. During the production planning process, the forecast is used as an input to the business plan to determine the appropriate level of human resources, therefore, the vehi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to overcome the problems of low long-term forecasting accuracy and slow forecasting speed of existing forecasting methods, the present invention provides a car sales forecasting method based on econometrics and heuristic intelligence, and analyzes the relationship between car sales and The causal relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship between economic variables distinguishes internal and external variables, reduces the interference of exogenous variables, and reflects the dynamic process of adjusting variables from short-term fluctuations to long-term equilibrium by establishing a vector error correction model, thereby clarifying The Dynamic Evolution Law of Geographical Characteristic Variables

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