Establishment method of data actuarial-model of flight delay insurance

Abstract

The invention relates to an establishment method of a data actuarial-model of flight delay insurance. The data actuarial-model of the flight delay insurance includes an initial-data preprocessing module, a data model operating module and a prediction result analysis module. The method includes the steps of: (1) preprocessing initial data; (2) determining data indexes, and carrying out calculationfor basic data and additional data of flights; (3) constructing the data model, and carrying out regression method calculation for the plurality of obtained different indexes through an R language; (4) running the data model multiple times to obtain multiple weight values, and acquiring mean values of the weight values to calculate final weight values; (5) carrying out calculation on results of the different indexes and the data model to obtain final prediction results; and (6) obtaining differences of the prediction results and actual values by comparing, and adjusting the data model to enable the data model to fit delay values of the flights and obtain more accurate prediction results. The method adopts the R language to construct the data model for the flight data indexes through a regression method, and has the characteristic of more accurate prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for establishing a data actuarial model of flight delay insurance, in particular to a method for establishing a data actuarial model of flight delay insurance with accurate prediction, and belongs to the field of analysis and processing of civil aviation information data. Background technique [0002] At present, flight delay predictions on the market generally calculate the delay rate by taking the average of historical records, which cannot accurately provide flight predictions, so they cannot be very accurately applied to the insurance industry, especially after a period of practice. Delay insurance cannot get rid of the loss-making situation, so that major insurance companies have withdrawn flight delay insurance products. Moreover, because there is no more accurate delay prediction, many business travelers do not have a better flight choice. Contents of the invention [0003] The method for establishing the dat...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The method for establishing the data actuarial model of flight delay insurance in the present invention discloses a new scheme, uses R language to build a data model for flight data indicators through a regression method, and solves the problem that the flight delay probability model of the existing scheme is too rough to support the odds of delay insurance The problem with dynamic adjustment

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