Power equipment defect event early warning method based on conditional probability

Abstract

The invention relates to a power equipment defect event early warning method based on conditional probability. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical observation data, calculating predicted observation data, calculating the number of target equipment and calculating the defect risk probability. According to the power equipment defect event early warning method based on the conditional probability provided by the invention, the associated factors associated with the defects of the equipment are predicted through historical observation data; prediction observation data in a future state are predicted; the defect risk probability that the equipment group has defects in the future state is calculated; the power equipment defect risk prediction method and system can predict thedefect risk probability of the power equipment, thus realizing the purpose of early warning the defect risk of the equipment, simplifying the checking and / or detecting program and checking range of the power equipment, reducing the checking and / or detecting difficulty, saving time and labor, and being convenient and fast.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to an early warning method for power equipment defect events based on conditional probability, and belongs to the technical field of power grid automation dispatching. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of the power system, it not only brings a lot of convenience to people's lives (such as lighting, etc.), but also provides more convenience in people's travel (such as electric vehicles, Trains and trams etc.). [0003] Accompanied by this is the increase in demand for power equipment, which has led to vigorous development of power equipment, such as the increasingly complex structure of power grids, and power equipment showing the characteristics of multiple manufacturers, equipment types, and product models. Due to the increase in electrical equipment, the unevenness of good and bad, as well as the use of environmental and social factors, the probabilit...

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Problems solved by technology

Due to the increase in power equipment, the good and the bad, and the influence of the use environment and social factors, the probability of defects in power equipment has greatly increased

The applicant found in the research that at present, after the electrical equipment has a defect or failure, the electrical equipment is checked and / or tested one by one to find out the defective electrical equipment. The inspection procedure is cumbersome, the inspection scope is wide, and the workload Large, it takes a lot of time and labor costs

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