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Drought detection method

A detection method and drought technology, applied in the field of drought detection research, can solve the problems of complicated GAMLSS model process, difficulty in applying drought risk assessment, and difficulty in popularization

Active Publication Date: 2021-03-16
ANHUI NORMAL UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004]The existing non-stationary drought index construction is mostly based on the GAMLSS framework or incorporates climatic factors for non-stationary modeling. Due to the limitations of climatic factor data, it is difficult to apply the current non-stationary drought index to the drought risk assessment under different emission scenarios in the future

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Embodiment 1

[0042] The log-logistic distribution fitting of the difference D between precipitation and evapotranspiration assumes that the parameters are constant, that is, the scale, shape, and location parameters are constant. The assumption of stationarity is the basic assumption for analyzing time series distribution fitting (the mean and variance are fixed), and when non-stationary series are fitting the distribution of stationarity, if the influence of non-stationary is not removed, the parameter estimation will be biased , and this deviation is irreversible and causes errors in the fitting. Therefore the application is based on this starting point, and a kind of drought detection method is provided, and the Log-logistic fitting distribution function is constructed as the time-varying Log-logistic fitting distribution function.

[0043] Such as Figure 7 As shown, the application method includes the following steps:

[0044] Step 1. Obtain the difference data between precipitation...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a drought detection method, which comprises the following steps of: 1, acquiring difference data of precipitation and evaporation capacity in a certain region, and forming timeseries data D in a time period; 2, using a trend value fitted by a smooth spline to replace a position parameter of Logistic distribution to obtain a time-varying position parameter Dt; and 3, basedon the Logistic distribution of the time-varying Dt time sequence, estimating parameters by using an empirical frequency-based probability weighted distance method PWMs, and carrying out drought detection index standardization. A new non-stationary drought index NSPEI is provided, the modeling method is simple, the non-stationary standardized rainfall evapotranspiration index NSPEI fitted by usingtime-varying logistic distribution is closer to the soil drought degree in drought detection than SPEI, and drought information can be better reflected.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of drought detection research, in particular to a method for drought detection considering non-stationary factors. Background technique [0002] Due to the complexity of drought detection research, there are many drought detection indicators. Taking meteorological drought detection as an example, the meteorological drought indicators mainly include Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). , Effective drought index (Effective drought index, EDI), etc. Based on meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, humidity, and altitude, Vicente-Serrano et al. proposed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotransspiration Index (SPEI) by considering multi-scale characteristics and the impact of temperature changes on drought. , this index makes up for the lack of multi-scale characteristics of future climate scenarios described by PDSI without consi...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18Y02A90/10
Inventor 孙鹏姚蕊温庆志
Owner ANHUI NORMAL UNIV
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