Method for predicating dynamic volume of sector area

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting the dynamic volume of a sector area and adopts a dynamic volume predicating method to predict the volume of the sector area. The method comprises: firstly, predicating the dynamic density of the controlled sector in the future 30 min according to the tracking information and the related data; secondly, computing and recording the number of aircrafts in the controlled sector areas in 15 time intervals; thirdly, matching the dynamic density of the sector area and the number of the aircrafts in each time interval one by one and performing regression analysis on the computed points to further determine the relationship between the dynamic density of the sector area and the number of the aircrafts in each time interval; and finally, predicting the tread of a fitted curve. When the method is adopted to measure the volume of the sector area, the individual difference of controllers have little influence on the accuracy, data are easily acquired, the data flow is small, the computer network technical platform is adopted for support, no extra capita is required, and the evaluation is simple and accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of air traffic flow management, in particular to a method for sector dynamic capacity prediction. Background technique [0002] At present, there are mainly four methods for sector capacity prediction: The first is the radar simulator evaluation method based on the controller’s workload, which is limited to the individual differences of controllers and the simulated environment that have a great influence on the accuracy of the results; The second is an evaluation method based on the analysis of historical statistical data. This method is difficult to collect data and has a large amount of data. The quantity and quality of sample data directly affect the correctness of the results; the third is an evaluation method based on mathematical calculation models. The limitation of this method is that it is difficult to establish a mathematical model that can accurately describe the control area, and the considerations ar...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, there are mainly four methods for sector capacity prediction: The first is the radar simulator evaluation method based on the controller’s workload, which is limited to the individual differences of controllers and the simulated environment that have a great influence on the accuracy of the results; The second is an evaluation method based on the analysis of historical statistical data. This method is difficult to collect data and has a large amount of data. The quantity and quality of sample data directly affect the correctness of the results; the third is an evaluation method based on mathematical calculation models. The limitation of this method is that it is difficult to establish a mathematical model that can accurately describe the control area, and the considerations are limited, it is only an abstraction of the actual situation

The fourth is the evaluation method based on the computer simulation model. The disadvantage is that the construction and use of the simulation model requires a large investment of technical support and funds, and the evaluation period is long.

[0003] At present, there are no reports at home and abroad that use dynamic capacity prediction as a method of sector capacity prediction. Therefore, the method of sector dynamic capacity prediction will be a new idea for sector capacity prediction

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