Typhoon disaster risk estimate method

A typhoon and disaster technology, applied in the field of typhoon disaster risk prediction, can solve the problems of lack of effective methods for the comprehensive severity of multi-index disasters, typhoon disasters, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-06-26
NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

At present, the prediction of typhoon disaster is the disaster prediction between typhoon and house damage, farmland flooding and direct economic loss. However, the prediction of the comprehensive severity of multi-indicator disasters that may be caused by typhoon disaster still remains lack of effective methods
[0003] Secondly, in the risk assessment of typhoon disasters, the research on the r

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Embodiment Construction

[0039] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0040] As shown in Figure 1, the present invention proposes a kind of typhoon disaster risk estimation method, predicts the future typhoon disaster for designated monitoring area, comprises the following steps:

[0041] Step 1. According to the specified typhoon disaster risk level set, the specified typhoon disaster evaluation index set, and the statistical data corresponding to each typhoon disaster evaluation index in each monitoring period of the designated monitoring area, the gray correlation analysis method is used to obtain the designated monitoring area. The disaster correlation value of the typhoon disaster during the monitoring period;

[0042] Step 2. Define the four major factors as the evaluation index of typhoon disaster prediction, the hazard of disaster-causing factor, the sensitivity of disaster-forming...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a typhoon disaster risk estimate method. The method includes performing statistics and analysis on loss data caused by a typhoon disaster in a specified monitored area, selecting disaster-inducing risk, disaster-formative environment sensitivity, disaster-affected body vulnerability and disaster preventing and reducing capacity to build a typhoon disaster risk estimate index system, building a typhoon disaster risk estimate model with the theory of fuzzy transformation, taking typhoon estimate results as start conditions and input conditions of the estimate model, and judging whether the estimated area is induced a typhoon disaster or not in a future period of time and determining a disaster-inducing risk level through calculating and analyzing of the estimate model. Accordingly, early-warning capability of meteorological disasters is improved by the typhoon disaster risk estimate method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a typhoon disaster risk prediction method. Background technique [0002] First of all, the current risk assessment technology for typhoon disasters is basically based on the statistical analysis of historical data, selects relevant factors, determines the weight coefficient according to the degree of impact of typhoon disasters caused by various relevant factors, and finally builds a comprehensive typhoon disaster risk zoning model, The results of risk zoning are obtained to realize a risk zoning of historical typhoon disasters in a certain area. However, for business departments such as meteorology or government, it is more realistic to realize the prediction of possible disaster losses caused by future typhoons. At present, the predictions of typhoon disasters are all disaster predictions between typhoons and individual disasters such as house damage, farmland flooding, and direct economic losses. There is no effective metho...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCY02A90/10
Inventor 耿焕同贾婷婷薛丰昌吴正雪
Owner NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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