The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic safety, and relates to a driver violation risk estimation method based on a duration model, which comprises the following steps: A, constructinga driver violation interval time sample database; B, estimating overall distribution of driver violation interval time; C, fitting a violation interval time duration model, and estimating a regression parameter of the calibration duration model; D, estimating the cumulative survival rate of the driver violation interval time; And E, estimating the risk of violation of the driver. According to themethod, deleting data is considered, and driver violation interval time distribution is estimated more accurately. Identifying significant influence factors of the violation behavior, and estimatingthe violation risk probability of the driver in a future period of time. Therefore, violation early warning prompt is provided for the driver, the possibility of violation and accident events of the driver is reduced, and the road traffic safety is improved.