Wind power plant power climbing risk estimating method based on cloud model

Abstract

The invention provides a wind power plant power climbing risk estimating method based on a cloud model. The method includes the steps of S1, dividing risk grades, and generating standard risk cloud through a standard risk cloud model; S2, collecting wind power plant power climbing risk related data according to risk estimating requirements, and preprocessing the collected wind power plant power climbing risk related data; S3, generating risk attribute cloud through a risk attribute cloud reverse generating model; S4, calculating the risk attribute cloud through a comprehensive risk model to obtain comprehensive risk cloud; S5, estimating risks; S6, calculating a current risk value. By means of the wind power plant power climbing risk estimating method, with the aid of a cloud model theory,according to the wind power plant power climbing main characteristic quantity, the cloud model is established, the risk value is determined and the risks are quantitatively analyzed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind farms, in particular to a cloud model-based risk assessment method for power ramping of wind farms. Background technique [0002] Wind energy will be affected by many aspects such as meteorological information and geographical environment. With the change of weather and different geographical locations, wind energy will show different intermittent changes, so wind power will also have characteristics such as uncertainty and volatility. Moreover, most of the wind power grid-connected development models in my country are large-scale and centralized grid-connected, so large-scale wind power grid-connected will inevitably cause potential crises to the power grid, seriously affecting the safety and stability of the power system, frequency and peak regulation, economic operation, etc. In various aspects, especially under extreme weather conditions, high-risk ramping events may occur in wind power power, that is, the ...

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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, most of the wind power grid-connected development models in my country are large-scale and centralized grid-connected, so large-scale wind power grid-connected will inevitably cause potential crises to the power grid, seriously affecting the safety and stability of the power system, frequency and peak regulation, economic operation, etc. In various aspects, especially under extreme weather conditions, high-risk ramping events may occur in wind power power, that is, the power output of wind farms fluctuates violently in a short period of time, thereby destroying the load balance and power balance of the power system

[0003] In recent years, research on risk assessment methods and assessment models has attracted many scholars at home and abroad. Traditional risk assessment methods are usually limited to the improvement of assessment techniques, and few studies have been conducted on the essential attributes of risk, such as the randomness of risk.

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