A method for forecasting and dispatching capacity of lng multi-point transport ship

Abstract

The invention relates to an LNG multi-point transport ship transport-capacity prediction scheduling method. A LNG multi-point transport ship transport-capacity prediction scheduling system is arranged in a networked structure formed by a plurality of long-term product supply points and a plurality of receiving stations; the system includes DCSs arranged in all the receiving stations and GMS terminals arranged in all the receiving stations, and an LNG multi-point transport ship transport-capacity scheduling simulation system platform arranged in any receiving station; and a discrete simulation deduction program integrating a Monte Carlo algorithm and an operational research queuing theory is arranged in a simulation module of the simulation system platform. According to the invention, various information of all receiving stations are obtained automatically by all DCSs; and according to a transport ship arrival time window and transport ship transport-capacity distribution scheme that is obtained by simulated deduction by the simulation system platform, all the GMS terminals generate transport ship transport-capacity scheduling plans of all the receiving stations, so that the accuracy and the practical operation are high. The provided method can be widely applied to a multi-transport ship transport-capacity prediction scheduling process in various networked systems with multiple long-term product supply points and multiple receiving stations.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for forecasting and dispatching LNG (liquefied natural gas) transport capacity, in particular to an LNG multi-point transport ship coordinated and optimized between multiple LNG long-term supply points (i.e. liquefaction plants) and multiple LNG receiving stations Capacity Forecasting and Scheduling Method. Background technique [0002] In the LNG industry chain, the basic function of the LNG receiving station is to unload the LNG carrier from the long-term supply point via the ocean, store the LNG material in the LNG storage tank after unloading, and transfer the LNG according to the downstream gas demand. After gasification, it is exported to three types of gaseous users: industrial, civil and gas-fired power plants. At the same time, a small part of LNG is directly transported out in liquid form through LNG tankers. The core of the receiving station's ADP (annual delivery plan) process for long-term supply ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the scope of analysis of the existing technology is limited to the scope of control of a single receiving station, which cannot adapt to the model of multiple long-term supply points and multiple receiving stations, nor can it meet the production and operation requirements of multi-point joint supply, joint transportation and joint guarantee, and the technical method is based on subjective experience. and historical data, the analysis and processing of key data is relatively elementary, and the predictability of the plan is poor, resulting in a large spare tank capacity of reserved storage tanks, and the capacity of transport ships is dedicated

Under the conditions of many variable factors such as large fluctuations in downstream gas consumption, long-term supply resource arrival time delays in units of days, and high possibility of bad weather at the receiving port, the existing technical methods are more rough and general. It is very likely to cause "empty tanks" in the storage tanks (the reserved storage tanks have a large capacity), or "forced tanks" (the LNG stock is high, making it difficult to fill), and the queues of transport ships at the receiving station port, etc., which will cause delays Decision-making timing causes serious economic losses, such as fines, reduction of downstream gas supply, and even failure to provide effective guarantee for normal gas supply

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