Transformer risk analysis method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a transformer risk analysis method. The method comprises the steps of: using practical defects of a transformer as risk sources, obtaining association indexes, and further giving an initial probability value to each determined risk index corresponding to the association indexes; constructing similar matrices formed by the association indexes respectively for each risk source, giving values to the similar matrices, and screening out the similar matrix, meeting preset conditions, in each risk source and a corresponding weight vector; according to the initial probability values of the association indexes and the weight vector screened out by each risk source, obtaining weighted probability values of each risk source to the risk indexes; obtaining severe degrees of each h risk source to the risk indexes, and screening out a maximum value of the same risk index, and according to the weighted probability values and the severe degree maximum value, calculating an index of each risk index; accumulating the indexes so as to obtain a total risk index, and outputting the total risk index. By adopting the method, the accuracy and the reliability of transformer risk assessment and defect diagnosis are improved, the assessment result is enabled to be more scientific and reasonable, and the expandability is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of transformers, in particular to a method and system for risk analysis of transformers. Background technique [0002] The power transformer is the core component of power grid energy transmission, and plays an extremely important role in the power system. Its safe operation is the primary guarantee for the safe, reliable and stable operation of the power grid. According to the statistics of the service life of power transmission and transformation equipment in some countries by the International Large Power Grid Conference, the average design life of transformer equipment is 40-45 years. Due to the difference in actual operation conditions and load changes, the actual remaining life of transformers in operation varies greatly. . [0003] In order to avoid huge economic losses caused by blind replacement of transformers, as well as potential safety hazards caused by continued operation without basis, it is ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Since the online monitoring system and production management system of transformer equipment that have been applied are mostly independent of each other, and different online monitoring systems often have single functions and different communication standards, it is difficult to carry out system integration and information fusion and sharing, and it is impossible to scientifically and rationally monitor transformer equipment. evaluation and is not scalable

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