31results about How to "The evaluation results are scientific and reasonable" patented technology

The invention provides a method for evaluating operational risk of wind power farms in combination with weather and wind speed, comprising the following steps of: a, determining outage probability of equipment components under the current weather within an evaluation cycle; b, constructing a time sequence through an ARMA model and performing matrix transformation, thereby obtaining a wind speed sequence of each wind power farm; c, obtaining a system state according to the outage probability of the current weather, and performing sampling through a non-sequential Monte Carlo method; d, adding 1 to number of sampling, obtaining wind speed of each wind power farm at the current time, and calculating output of each wind power farm; e, according to output of each wind power farm, screening out a load bus meeting a preset condition, and corresponding load shedding value of the load bus, accumulating the load shedding value, and taking the accumulated value as minimum loss load quantity of the system; f, according to the minimum loss load quantity, calculating a risk indicator; g, when risk indicator variance is less than precision each time, returning back to the step d; and otherwise, outputting the risk indicator. By implementation of the method and the system provided by the invention, accuracy and reliability of evaluation of operational risk of the wind power farms can be improved, and evaluation result can be more scientific and rational, and has extensibility.

The invention discloses a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk assessment method based on a gray weighted correlation degree, and the method comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a three-level evaluation index system, and dividing a forward evaluation index and a reverse evaluation index; (2) establishing an evaluation matrix, and calculating an objective weight by using an entropy weight method; (3) calculating a correlation coefficient through a grey correlation analysis method; and (4) calculating a gray weighted correlation degree in combination with the objective weight and the correlation coefficient, and performing sorting to obtain a sample with the highest ecological vulnerability. According to the method, the influence of natural and human activity factors on the coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk is comprehensively considered; a set of systematic three-level evaluation index system is constructed, objective evaluation of coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risks can be achieved in combination with the grey weighted correlation degree, methods and reference are provided for coastal wetland protection, management and scientific research, and a scientific basis is provided for improving the coastal wetland ecological environment.

The invention relates to the field of railway engineering construction, in particular to a railway line trend evaluation determination method. The invention provides a railway line trend evaluation determination method, and provides a railway line trend scheme comprehensive evaluation index system and a scheme evaluation determination method which comprehensively consider that railway constructionis in different stages and comprises four first-level indexes, eight second-level indexes and 42 third-level indexes. The problems that in the prior art, index selection is not comprehensive enough,or part of indexes are not practical and poor in operability, the development requirement of railway lines cannot be met, and the development objectives of technology, economy, environment, society and the like of railway construction at different stages cannot be reflected are effectively solved.

The invention discloses a Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation method. The method comprises the following steps: S1, establishing a Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation index system; S2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment support capability; and S3, evaluating the general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability through the comprehensive evaluation model. According to the invention, the comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment support capability is established, and a more scientific and reasonable evaluation result is obtained; besides, the correctness of the method is verified by evaluating the maintenance support capability of the general vehicle equipment of a certain unit, and the result shows that the evaluation index established by the method is objective, effective, scientific and reasonable, and the obtained evaluation result is more accurate. The method is of guiding significance to equipment efficiency evaluation and vehicle equipment maintenance support capability strengthening construction.

The invention provides a transformer risk analysis method. The method comprises the steps of: using practical defects of a transformer as risk sources, obtaining association indexes, and further giving an initial probability value to each determined risk index corresponding to the association indexes; constructing similar matrices formed by the association indexes respectively for each risk source, giving values to the similar matrices, and screening out the similar matrix, meeting preset conditions, in each risk source and a corresponding weight vector; according to the initial probability values of the association indexes and the weight vector screened out by each risk source, obtaining weighted probability values of each risk source to the risk indexes; obtaining severe degrees of each h risk source to the risk indexes, and screening out a maximum value of the same risk index, and according to the weighted probability values and the severe degree maximum value, calculating an index of each risk index; accumulating the indexes so as to obtain a total risk index, and outputting the total risk index. By adopting the method, the accuracy and the reliability of transformer risk assessment and defect diagnosis are improved, the assessment result is enabled to be more scientific and reasonable, and the expandability is realized.

The invention discloses a vehicle lane changing track deviation calculation method based on traffic simulation, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a real lane changing track and simulation lane changing track information of a target vehicle, calculating the deviation between the simulation lane changing track and the real lane changing track in lane changing time, longitudinal length and transverse length, and calculating the deviation between the simulation lane changing track and the real lane changing track; and finally determining the total deviation of the real lane changing track and the simulated lane changing track of the target vehicle when the deviation of the simulated lane changing track and the real lane changing track in the whole process stages of the speed, the acceleration and the steering angle is calculated. According to the method provided by the invention, the macroscopic parameters and the microscopic parameters in the microscopic lane changing track are comprehensively considered, and the microscopic parameters are uniformly processed in the time dimension, so that the deviation between the simulated lane changing track and the real lane changing track can be more accurately evaluated, and technical guidance is provided for further optimizing a lane changing model or a traffic simulation platform.

The invention discloses a regional water bearing capacity calculation method based on an extension conduction effect. The calculation method comprises the following steps of: 1) considering condition differences such as coupling relationship and area between different design elements, and determining design variables of a proposed water station, indicator elements of reach evaluation and the calculation method; 2) building and designing a problem model between the problems, and carrying out correlation analysis so as to obtain a nuclear problem model and a conduction contradiction ring; and 3) researching a conversion mechanism of the conduction contradiction ring, providing an active variable, and building an extension transformation operation model to calculate the conduction effect between different design elements so as to obtain a comprehensive evaluation result; and comprehensively considering an ecological index, a social index and an technical index by classification comparison of the result so as to finally obtain an optimal scheme, and applying to regional water bearing capacity calculation of 27 reaches of Zhejiang water resources to achieve regionalization. According to the invention, the relevance and conduction between the design variables of the proposed water station and the design elements of the regional water bearing capacity are fully considered; and the problem of incompatibility is effectively achieved, and the calculation process is concise and clear, objective and strong in practicability.

This invention discloses one safety evaluation technique by use of recycle water as contact amusement water. The technique uses different concentration times water sample to process test on large ear rabbit skin and eyes through observing tested part reaction evaluation to generate water contact safety.

The invention discloses a dynamic stability monitoring and early warning method for an underground deeply-buried curtain. The method comprises the following steps that 1) monitoring points are arranged on a curtain body and the periphery of the curtain body; 2) monitoring data is collected and extracted; 3) mesh generation is carried out on a monitoring range; 4) sensitivity division is carried out on monitoring factors; 5) a comprehensive stability threshold value of the curtain is calculated; and 6) a dynamic stability monitoring and early warning system for the curtain is built. Compared with traditional monitoring methods such as microseism and industrial CT, the novel stability monitoring method for the deeply-buried curtain is small in interference factor, data is collected in real time, and the problems of data distortion and information lag do not exist. According to the factor sensitivity sorting and the comprehensive threshold value, monitoring and early warning of the overall stability of the curtain are achieved, and the problem that monitoring and early warning of the stability of the deeply-buried curtain are lack of integrity and integrity is solved.

The invention discloses an electric energy quality fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the steps of constructing each evaluation index based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; constructing a weight vector W, wherein the weight vector W is the superposition of the adjustment weight in the excitation state and the constant weight of each evaluation index; constructing a cloud membership function according to the normal cloud model and forming a fuzzy relation matrix R; constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector B according to the weight vector W and the fuzzy relation matrix R; processing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector B according to a confidence criterion to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value. According to the invention, the influence of subjective factors in the evaluation process is avoided; the method is advantaged in that the acquired evaluation result is more scientific and reasonable, satisfactory comprehensive evaluation results are acquired, confidence degree information of the evaluation result can be further provided, reasonable and objective analysis on the electric energy qualityis carried out, construction of the electric energy quality market is facilitated, and cost reduction and benefit improvement of individual users and power enterprises are facilitated.