A method and system for evaluating wind farm operation risk in combination with weather and wind speed

Abstract

The invention provides a method for evaluating operational risk of wind power farms in combination with weather and wind speed, comprising the following steps of: a, determining outage probability of equipment components under the current weather within an evaluation cycle; b, constructing a time sequence through an ARMA model and performing matrix transformation, thereby obtaining a wind speed sequence of each wind power farm; c, obtaining a system state according to the outage probability of the current weather, and performing sampling through a non-sequential Monte Carlo method; d, adding 1 to number of sampling, obtaining wind speed of each wind power farm at the current time, and calculating output of each wind power farm; e, according to output of each wind power farm, screening out a load bus meeting a preset condition, and corresponding load shedding value of the load bus, accumulating the load shedding value, and taking the accumulated value as minimum loss load quantity of the system; f, according to the minimum loss load quantity, calculating a risk indicator; g, when risk indicator variance is less than precision each time, returning back to the step d; and otherwise, outputting the risk indicator. By implementation of the method and the system provided by the invention, accuracy and reliability of evaluation of operational risk of the wind power farms can be improved, and evaluation result can be more scientific and rational, and has extensibility.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind farm risk assessment, in particular to a method and system for evaluating wind farm operation risks in combination with weather and wind speed. Background technique [0002] With the continuous increase in the capacity of single wind turbines and the scale of wind farms, it is urgent to study the impact of wind power grid connection on power system operation risk assessment. However, safety assessment based on risk theory needs to fully account for various events in the power system The possibility of occurrence and its consequences, while ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system, make the operation of the power system more economical and efficient. [0003] The assessment of wind farm operation risk involves the following aspects: 1. When multiple wind farms are connected to the power system, because the multiple wind farms are geographically close to each other, they are basically under ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The assessment of wind farm operation risk involves the following aspects: 1. When multiple wind farms are connected to the power system, due to the close geographical location of multiple wind farms and basically under the same wind belt, the wind speed has a certain Correlation; 2. Due to the randomness and intermittent nature of the wind speed, the wind power output is fluctuating, which makes the wind power output have a certain correlation; 3. Because the weather will affect the stability of the equipment operation, the weather factor has a certain degree of Correlation

[0004] However, in the prior art, several aspects of the above risk assessment are not fully considered, resulting in one-sided risk assessment results and low accuracy

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