2 results about "Risk theory" patented technology

This invention provides a method and system for dynamic reconfiguration and load restoration of balanced subnets. It constructs a two-stage optimization model: the first stage determines mobile resource deployment and dynamic topology connections; the second stage determines equipment power output under uncertainty. After system modeling and defining multiple types of decision variables, an objective function is constructed to maximize the difference between the total weighted restored load and the total active power loss. Three types of constraints are established: topology, equipment operation, and system safety, and the schedulable load is linearized. To address the uncertainty of renewable energy output, Wasserstein fuzzy sets are introduced to construct bibru bar chance constraints. These constraints are transformed using conditional value at risk theory, and the model is then reconstructed using strong duality theory and the stochastic saddle point theorem, transforming it into a mixed integer convex optimization problem with second-order cone constraints. This invention can efficiently achieve dynamic networking and load restoration optimization of balanced subnets while ensuring system safety.

The invention discloses a reliability modeling and risk analysis method for a numerical control machining center. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring field operation and maintenance data of the numerical control machining center and dividing the whole machine into a plurality of functional subsystems; constructing a hybrid Weibull distribution model for each subsystem, determining an optimal hybrid component number by using AIC and BIC criteria, and performing parameter estimation by using an EM algorithm to characterize life characteristics hybrid with multiple failure mechanisms; based on a competitive risk theory, calculating a cumulative fault probability CFP of each subsystem and a first fault contribution degree FFC to complete machine failure; and constructing a risk quadrant graph by taking the fault frequency and the first fault contribution degree as dimensions, evaluating the risk region category of each subsystem, and generating a differentiated maintenance strategy. According to the method, the problem that a single distribution model is difficult to adapt to heterogeneous fault data is solved, and the actual influence of the subsystem on the shutdown of the whole machine can be quantitatively evaluated, so that a scientific preventive maintenance plan is guided to be formulated.