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121 results about "Probabilistic method" patented technology

The probabilistic method is a nonconstructive method, primarily used in combinatorics and pioneered by Paul Erdős, for proving the existence of a prescribed kind of mathematical object. It works by showing that if one randomly chooses objects from a specified class, the probability that the result is of the prescribed kind is strictly greater than zero. Although the proof uses probability, the final conclusion is determined for certain, without any possible error.

Information security risk assessment method oriented to typical metallurgy process control system

The invention provides an information security risk assessment method oriented to a typical metallurgy process control system and belongs to the technical field of industrial control system information security. The system robustness under different attack modes and policies is analyzed by establishing an attack model under the typical scenes of the metallurgy process, and therefore, the security risk assessment on the typical metallurgy process control system in different attack modes and a failure mode can be realized. Based on the risk theory, the method is used for performing the security risk assessment by use of a random probability algorithm by defining the metallurgy process control system as a physical information fusion system; from the two aspects of the occurrence probability and the influence of attack sources or failure sources, a security assessment method based on risk indexes is developed. Quantitative estimation is performed based on risk indexes; a security incident set is created based on the established physical information fusion model and attack model, and then the security incident set is combined with the calculated robustness assessment indexes for the quantitative estimation, and therefore, the weak security links in the control system can be located conveniently.
Owner:AUTOMATION RES & DESIGN INST OF METALLURGICAL IND

Risk-based tunnel supporting structure design method

The invention relates to a risk-based tunnel supporting structure design method, comprising three links: determining the initial design scheme of a tunnel supporting structure, evaluating the risk of each supporting scheme, and making decision and analyzing the supporting schemes. In the method, a probability method and a risk analysis model are applied to carry out quantitative description to physical mechanics indexes of a surrounding rock and the uncertainty in geological exploration; the initial design scheme for supporting is given according to the level of the surrounding rock; space effect of tunnel excavation is considered and a convergence-confinement method is improved through the hardening process for pneumatically placed concrete supporting, the calculation procedures of the improved convergence-confinement method are used for analyzing the determined supporting design scheme, and the failure probability of the supporting and the surrounding rock is given under different construction parameters; and then the risk evaluation is carried out to the supporting design scheme, accident risk acceptance criteria is determined, and proper supporting design scheme is determined by a decision maker. In the method, the risk ideal is led in engineering practice for processing various uncertain problems in the tunnel structure design, so as to be beneficial to carrying out quantitative analysis and evaluation to the effect of the uncertain factors in the tunnel supporting structure design and ensure the safety and the investment control of the tunnel forcefully and comprehensively.
Owner:TONGJI UNIV

Hybrid AC/DC microgrid optimization operation method and device considering source-grid-load interaction

The invention discloses a hybrid AC/DC microgrid optimization operation method and device considering source-grid-load interaction, and the method comprises the steps: enabling a hybrid AC/DC microgrid to be divided into an AC power supply region and a DC power supply region; obtaining a parameter of demand-side load equipment, classifying loads, and obtaining a 24-hour load demand prediction value of a microgrid; obtaining parameters of a converter in the hybrid AC/DC microgrid, and determining a calculation formula of power conversion loss of the converter; estimating the distribution curves of maximum output and load power of a photovoltaic cell and a wind driven generator through employing a probability method; and optimizing the operation of the hybrid AC/DC microgrid through a random chance constraint Stackelberg game model. The device comprises a dividing module, a first obtaining module, a second obtaining module, an estimation module, and an optimization module. The method and device improve the economic benefit environment benefit of microgrid operation, achieve the purpose of energy saving and loss reduction, and facilitate the construction of a reliable, environment-friendly and low-carbon power supply environment for economy.
Owner:NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +1
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