The invention discloses a
network attack prediction model construction method based on an uncertain
perception attack graph, which comprises the following steps: 1, adding an uncertain probability that vulnerabilities are attacked on the
attack graph to obtain an uncertain
perception attack graph; 2, associating the alarm information generated by the
intrusion detection system when the service inthe network
system is attacked, generating an alarm association graph, and generating an
intrusion response graph by using a response decision corresponding to the alarm information; 3, according to the source host address of the alarm, the destination host address of the alarm, the source port number of the alarm, the destination port number of the alarm, the protocol used for alarm transmissionand the
vulnerability number corresponding to the generated alarm, improving the uncertainty probability; 4, improving the uncertainty probability through the incidence relation between the response decisions in the
intrusion response graph and the response cost; 5, obtaining the probability that the service is attacked according to the uncertainty probability so as to obtain a prediction
attack model; the
network attack prediction method can realize accurate and comprehensive prediction of the
network attack.