The invention discloses a 
system failure early warning method based on a 
baseline model and the Bayesian factor. The 
system failure early warning method based on the 
baseline model and the Bayesian factor can be applied to a dynamic 
complex system and particularly applied to 
early detection and warning of 
aerospace vehicle equipment failure. The method includes: using the multivariate state 
estimation technique to excavate the 
system 'individuation' 
baseline model on the basis of system state 
monitoring data; and using an actual measurement value of a system 
state parameter to subtract a baseline value so as to obtain a deviation value of a 
state parameter, analyzing a deviation value sequence by the aid of a Bayesian 
factor method, monitoring abnormalities of a 
sequence structure, and timely giving out failure early warning. The 
system failure early warning method based on the baseline model and the Bayesian factor solves the problems that dynamic 
complex system performance parameter deviation value dispersion is large, failure early characteristics are easily buried in 
noise, warning can be given out at the early stage of 
system failure, and sensitivity and robustness of the 
monitoring system are improved. Besides, the baseline model is easy to implement from the perspective of 
engineering, and the method is high in university and capable of meeting the requirements of the dynamic system on real-time monitoring.