Power grid operating state assessment method based on risk theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid operating state assessment method based on the risk theory. The method comprises the following steps: data is collated, and a data processing module is established; the outage probability of power grid elements is calculated; the element outage probability data is stored; the power grid operating state is extracted through the Monte Carlo method; the system state is analyzed; system state analysis is performed through a submodule 5 to judge whether problems, such as the circuit overload problem, the voltage out-of-limit problem, the bus isolation problem, the problem that a system is separated into isolated islands, etc., occur; the power grid operating risk indicators are calculated; and the power grid operating state risk indicator result is analyzed to give out the weak link of the power grid. According to the invention, risk assessment is performed on the power grid operating state; the actual operating state of the power grid is simulated by using the Monte Carlo method, the event random nature of the power grid is taken into account reasonably; different risk indicators are used, multi-angle and multi-level assessment is performed on the power grid operating state risk; and the power grid operating state risk assessment result is analyzed to give out the weak link of the power grid.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of power grid risk assessment, and in particular relates to a risk theory-based power grid operation state assessment method. Background technique

[0002] Many major power outages in the world in recent decades show that the risk of power grid cannot be avoided due to the random nature of the behavior of the power grid. However, through grid planning, design, operation, and maintenance, the risk of the grid can still be controlled at the target level. The power grid is complex and consists of multiple elements, including advanced technology, reliable operating equipment and high-quality management personnel. Any element that makes up the system deviates from the normal state, which may destroy the balance of the system. If it is not handled properly, it may cause the expansion of the accident and produce more serious consequences.

[0003] At present, with the promotion of power market reform, the change of managem...

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