The invention discloses a power distribution network power supply reliability evaluation method and
system based on
data analysis, and relates to the technical field of power distribution network detection, a meteorological
station, a GIS and an
equipment monitoring terminal collect temperature, rainfall,
wind speed, load and fault
record data, and after
time sequence alignment and interpolation correction, a unified environment
data set is generated to provide an accurate basis for model construction; secondly, using historical and online data, calling a nonlinear mapping function and an equipment function to
train a meteorological-
fault rate model, outputting the equipment
fault probability in real time, and then calculating a
system risk index and a line risk value in combination with confidence-weighted weather forecast and equipment load
coupling operation to accurately identify a high-
risk area;
priority scheduling, load transfer and graded
load shedding are carried out on the high-
risk area, fault information is transmitted back, closed-
loop control is achieved, and the operation efficiency is improved.