Risk assessment method for power grid dispatching operation considering weather factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid dispatching operation risk evaluation method taking a weather factor into consideration. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, according to weather statistical data, historical statistical data of an equipment fault rate and a three-state weather model, calculating an equipment fault probability in a dispatching operation process respectively under a normal weather condition, a bad weather condition and an extremely bad weather condition; step 2, according to a system state in the dispatching operation process, obtaining a fault tree model; step 3, according to the fault tree model and a given risk consequence index, calculating a consequence of each step of operation, and determining whether the sequence is a development fault of the last step; and step 4, according to a risk theory, calculating a risk value of each step in the dispatching operation process and a total risk value. The method is reliable, is easily implemented and is convenient to promote.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power grid dispatching operation risk assessment, in particular to a power grid dispatching operation risk assessment method considering weather factors. Background technique [0002] Dispatching operation is an important part of the daily operation of the power system. In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the power grid, dispatchers need to take reasonable dispatching operations. However, in the actual dispatching operation process, due to uncertain factors such as weather, the dispatching operation often faces certain risks, and even causes great harm to the power system. Therefore, it is very important for the security of the power grid to carry out risk assessment on the dispatching operation process, so that the dispatcher can know the matters that should be paid attention to before the dispatching operation, and choose a reasonable dispatching operation sequence. [0003] However, the curren...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention aims at the problems that the current risk assessment method ignores the impact of bad weather and other external unfavorable factors on the dispatching operation, and ignores the possible impact of the previous operation result on the subsequent operation, etc., and provides a power grid dispatching that considers weather factors Operational risk assessment methods to address the failure set of weather and development after scheduled operations not considered in existing assessment methods

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