Hydropower station reservoir pre-discharge decision method based on CFS forecast product

Abstract

The invention belongs to the hydropower scheduling field and discloses a hydropower station reservoir pre-discharge decision method based on a CFS forecast product. The hydropower station reservoir pre-discharge decision method is characterized by establishing the probability distribution of actual rainfall and reservoir inflow under a specific furcated rainfall condition in different forecast periods by means of CFS historical forecasted data, and computing a water abandon risk probability in various initial reservoir capacity and generation decision combinations. On the basis of a conventional scheduling way, the method performs scheduling by using the water abandon risk probability as a decision criterion and using the water abandon risk probability threshold subjected to simulation and optimization as a quantified index of pre-discharged amplitude according to CFS rainfall forecast information. The method fully utilizes rainfall forecast information, provides quantified pre-discharge decision in flood seasons, takes consideration of benefit and risk, and achieves a purpose of reducing water abandon power amount.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir dispatching, and in particular relates to a decision-making method for pre-discharging of hydropower station reservoirs based on CFS weather forecast products. technical background [0002] my country is located in the monsoon region of Southeast Asia, with complex natural conditions and severe climate changes. It is one of the countries in the world that suffers from severe and frequent floods. Strengthening the information support of hydrometeorology and improving the level of rainfall forecasting is an effective way to enhance the capacity of reservoir dispatching and mitigate disasters. Numerical rainfall forecasting is a forecasting method that has emerged in recent years. With the development of advanced technologies such as computers, radars, and satellites, it has been popularized and applied in a wide range. Under given initial conditions and boundary conditions, it uses numerical methods Approx...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Therefore, reservoir pre-discharging scheduling is often used to reduce risks. Its essence is a reservoir risk scheduling that considers rainfall and inflow forecast errors. storage capacity, resulting in the phenomenon of water abandonment; on the other hand, if the pre-discharging range is too large, it will cause the loss of power generation head, and even fail to return to the ideal water level

Images