A Dynamic Calculation Method of Reservoir Flood Control Benefit Based on Mathematical Statistical Model

Abstract

The invention relates to a dynamic calculation method based on a mathematical statistics model and applied to flood control benefit of a reservoir and belongs to the technical field of water conservancy economy. Quantization of the flood control benefit is always a problem difficult to solve. The dynamic calculation method comprises the following steps: step 1, the concept of the flood control benefit growth rate is introduced, and a conversion factor between the flood control benefit of a flood occurrence year and the flood control benefit of a base year is solved; step 2, a proper mathematical statistics model is selected according to data including the peak discharge, the volume and corresponding flood control benefit of each historical flood, correlation among the peak discharge, the volume and the flood control benefit is searched, and a mathematical expression is established; step 3, a flood control benefit dynamic calculation model based on mathematical statistics is established according to the mathematical expression established in the step 2 and the conversion factor solved in the step 1, the peak discharge and the volume of an occurring flood are put into the model, and the flood control benefit value of the reservoir during the flood is obtained through calculation. Calculation is simple and convenient, the precision of a calculation result is high, and the calculation result better aggress with an actual situation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating flood control benefits applied to existing reservoirs, in particular to a method for dynamically calculating flood control benefits of reservoirs based on a mathematical statistical model, which belongs to the technical field of water conservancy economy. Background technique [0002] The primary function of reservoirs is flood control, but the quantification of flood control benefits has always been a difficult problem. The main reason is that besides the calculable direct disaster reduction economic benefits, there are also indirect benefits that are difficult to quantify. Flood control benefits usually refer to the reduced flood losses and the increased land development and utilization value of flood control projects compared with those without flood control projects, expressed in terms of multi-year average flood control benefits and extreme flood annual benefits. Flood control benefits are an impor...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The problems existing in the current method are: method 1 is a static analysis method, which cannot consider economic development factors; method 2 has high requirements for the selection of typical years by comparing historical data, and if it is improperly selected, it is easy to cause large errors; method 3 It is not easy to determine the relationship between the flood frequency and the disaster-prone area of ​​the year-of-occurrence method; it is difficult to select a typical series in the method 4 of the actual year series method, and the requirement for data representativeness is too high; the solution of the method 5 optimal equivalent alternative measure method is only a relative benefit

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