Transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition

A technology for price evaluation and equipment composition, which is applied in the fields of instruments, commerce, and data processing applications, and can solve problems such as reducing project investment benefits, affecting investment decisions, and increasing the difficulty of cost control

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-01-25
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] With the continuous improvement of the level of marketization, the cost control of each stage of the whole process of power grid construction is facing new situations and new changes. The deviation from the actual bidding price is large, and the accuracy of project estimation and estimated investment is not high, which increases the difficulty of cost control, reduces project investment benefits, increases financial costs, and affects investment decisions

Method used

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  • Transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition
  • Transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition
  • Transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment

[0049] Embodiment: Take 220kV180MVA transformer as an example, conduct model verification, determine random price range, and estimate equipment cost, profit and price.

[0050] 1) Estimating the cost of the transformer;

[0051] 1.1) Direct raw material cost:

[0052] Using the exponential smoothing prediction method and the adaptive coefficient prediction method respectively, taking the average value as the predicted value, predicting the price of silicon steel sheet and copper in 2012, the predicted value of silicon steel sheet is 20097.04 yuan / ton and 18615.97 yuan / ton. The average value of the method is 19,356 yuan / ton as the predicted price; similarly, the predicted value of copper is 64,764 yuan / ton. Substituting the price into the direct raw material cost model, the direct raw material cost of 220kV180MVA transformer in 2012 is 3.596 million yuan / set.

[0053] 1.2) Direct labor cost:

[0054] Using exponential smoothing forecasting method and adaptive coefficient for...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition. The method comprises the following steps: estimating the costs of transformers; performing multiple regression on the quantity demanded, concentration ratio and bidding strategy data of the transformers, judging the goodness-of-fit through correlation indexes, index goodness-of-fit and determination indexes, and acquiring a functional relationship among profit, transformer demand, concentration ratio and bidding strategy through significance testing; sequencing dispersion degrees of random price components of a certain type of transformers at a price historical data point, and eliminating individual sample points with high dispersion degrees, so as to obtain a price fluctuation interval pss and further obtain a transformer price evaluation model; evaluating transformer prices according to the transformer price evaluation model, so as to reduce the equipment procurement cost and engineering investment risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power transmission and transformation engineering cost, in particular to a transformer price evaluation method based on equipment composition. Background technique [0002] With the continuous improvement of the level of marketization, the cost control of each stage of the whole process of power grid construction is facing new situations and new changes. The deviation from the actual winning bid price is large, and the accuracy of project estimation and estimated investment is not high, which increases the difficulty of cost control, reduces project investment benefits, increases financial costs, and affects investment decisions. It is a problem that needs to be solved to improve the estimation accuracy of the main equipment price, dig out the inherent law of equipment price changes, and scientifically guide the calculation of equipment and material prices in the stages of feasibility study and preliminar...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02
CPCG06Q30/0283
Inventor 卢艳超史雪飞温卫宁冀凯琳
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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