Regional power grid wind power forecast evaluation method

A technology for wind power forecasting and evaluation methods, applied in forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as lack of scientificity, fuzzy evaluation methods, expert evaluation methods, etc., to achieve comprehensive evaluation, avoid uncertainty, avoid Subjective factors and unscientific effects

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-02-22
NORTH CHINA ELECTRICAL POWER RES INST +3
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Problems solved by technology

For multiple index evaluation systems, fuzzy evaluation methods, expert evaluation methods, etc. are widely used in traditional thermal power systems, but these methods all have human subjective factors in determining parameters, which is unscientific to a certain extent

Method used

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  • Regional power grid wind power forecast evaluation method
  • Regional power grid wind power forecast evaluation method
  • Regional power grid wind power forecast evaluation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0044] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0045] The method for evaluating the wind power prediction of the regional power grid according to the embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0046] figure 1 It is a schematic flow chart of an evaluation method for wind power prediction of a regional power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0047] Step 101, calculate t...

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Abstract

The invention provides a regional power grid wind power forecast evaluation method, the method comprises the steps of basing on the wind power forecasted actual power and the forecast power, calculating a base index and a regional system index of the error evaluation; principle component analyzing the base index and the regional system index, and selecting the efficient principle components; calculating the weighted coefficients of the efficient principle components; basing on the efficient principle components and the corresponding weighted coefficients to calculate an overall evaluation index. The method can from a variety of aspects evaluate comprehensively the forecast level of regional power grid wind power, and avoids the instability resulted from different ranks by multiple levels of indexes, can give a scientific, rational, and effective overall evaluation for wind farm power forecast level in regional power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of error evaluation of wind power prediction for regional power grids, in particular to an evaluation method for wind power prediction of regional power grids. Background technique [0002] Wind power forecasting is a key issue for the safe operation of power systems in wind power gathering areas. Due to the strong randomness of wind power, when the penetration power of wind power exceeds a certain value, it will have a serious impact on the power quality and the safe operation of the power system. If the wind speed and wind power can be predicted more accurately, it will help the power system dispatching department to adjust the dispatching plan in a timely manner, thereby effectively reducing the impact of wind power on the power grid, and can also reduce power system operating costs and spinning reserves. [0003] In order to solve the problem that the accuracy of wind power forecasting has not been sati...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 柳玉孙荣富崔正湃姚琦白恺崔阳徐曼王东升王靖然
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRICAL POWER RES INST
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