Strong convection wind power grade prediction method based on weather radar data

Abstract

The invention discloses a strong convection wind power grade prediction method based on weather radar data. The weather radar monitoring data is used as prediction information source, and the prediction of strong convection wind power is processed as "classification problem under supervised learning". According to the corresponding relation between the monitoring data of the strong convection wind power by the weather radar and the wind speed monitoring data of an automatic weather station, a classifier is constructed by means of serial SWM method, and the three-level prediction of wind power can be realized. Through the down-sampling method, the influence of the imbalance between low wind speed data sample and high wind speed data sample on the module classification can be reduced. The wind power prediction model can conduct quantitative prediction on ground wind brought by strong convection weather, and the deficiency that a conventional wind forecast of the meteorology department can not cover "small-scale, emergent and easily-passing-away" strong convection weather can be made up. The wind power prediction model can be the important support of the early warning of the risk of power transmission line wind deflection discharging under the weather of strong convection.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric meteorology, in particular to a method for predicting strong convective wind force. Background technique [0002] Radar has been used in the meteorological industry for more than half a century. The new generation of Doppler weather radar provides an effective way for meteorological problems such as monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of severe convective and other disastrous weather. Severe convective weather refers to disastrous weather with short-term strong floods, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and squall lines. It occurs in convective cloud systems or individual convective cloud blocks, and belongs to small and medium-scale weather systems in meteorology. . The root of strong convective weather is the strong vertical movement of air. In strong convective weather, transmission lines are very prone to safety failures, especially wind deflection. Due to the short duration of strong c...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the deficiencies of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention provides a method for predicting the level of strong convective wind force based on weather radar data, which solves the technical problem that the strong convective wind force cannot be quantitatively predicted in the prior art, and aims to realize the prediction of strong convective wind force under strong convective weather Forecast of the wind level

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