Prediction method for power load under complex characteristic influence, and computer information processing system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of prediction or optimization, and discloses a prediction method for a power load under complex characteristic influence, and a computer information processing system. The method comprises the steps: inputting historical power load characteristics and influence factor data thereof; carrying out the standardization of an original data sequence, so as toeliminate the interference caused by the difference of units; carrying out the PCA (principal component analysis) of the standardized sequence, and obtaining a PCA expression; calculating the scores of all principal components and an integrated score, obtaining a new data sequence, and carrying out the gray scale correlation analysis of the new data sequence; determining the weight value of each correlation coefficient according to a rule that the weight value is larger for a closer correlation coefficient; carrying out the ordering of the obtained weighted correlation degrees, substituting the weighted correlation degrees into a prediction model, and obtaining a power load characteristic prediction value. The method reduces the analysis complexity of a plurality of influence factors, solves a problem that the information in the influence factors are overlapped, is high in prediction reliability, can meet the requirements of the prediction of the power loads under the complex characteristic influence, so as to solve a problem of accurate planning and scheduling optimization in a power grid in future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of forecasting or optimization, and in particular relates to a power load forecasting method and a computer information processing system influenced by complex characteristics. Background technique [0002] At present, the commonly used existing technologies in the industry are as follows: With the rapid development of my country's economy, the demand for energy continues to increase. As a convenient and important secondary energy source, electric energy plays an extremely important role in all aspects of society. However, the feature that electric energy cannot be stored in large quantities makes it necessary for the power system to maintain a balance between supply and demand at all times, and to provide reliable and standard electric energy to various users as economically as possible to meet their load demands. Therefore, in order to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system, it is necess...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] To sum up, the problems existing in the existing technology are: when there are too many influencing factors and variables in the current power load forecasting method, the analysis complexity is high, the weight determination method is highly subjective, and the forecasting reliability is low.

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