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Johnson-Copula model-based power demand total amount related factor analysis system and method

A technology of power demand and related factors, which is applied in the field of analysis system for related factors of total power demand to achieve the effect of strong adaptability and good accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2019-04-02
STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Among the existing patents, there is no patent that conducts a correlation analysis between the total power demand and other related factors

Method used

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  • Johnson-Copula model-based power demand total amount related factor analysis system and method
  • Johnson-Copula model-based power demand total amount related factor analysis system and method
  • Johnson-Copula model-based power demand total amount related factor analysis system and method

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0171] This example will analyze the correlation between the economic and social development factors and the total power demand in an actual W power grid area in my country. The W power grid area includes province A, city B, and district C. This example uses the total power demand data of the W power grid region from 2006 to 2016 in Table 1 as the original data to analyze the correlation between the total power demand and related factors.

[0172] Based on Table 1, the sample data of the total electricity demand in the W power grid region from 2006 to 2016 is transformed into a sample conforming to the standard normal distribution through the Johnson distribution curve. The Johnson distribution curve simulates the cumulative distribution curve of total electricity demand from 2006 to 2016. figure 2 shown. It can be seen that the Johnson distribution system is very accurate in simulating the actual power demand data. In the case of known historical data of the total power d...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Johnson-Copula model-based power demand total amount related factor analysis system and method. The system comprises an input module, an index module, an analysis module andan output module which are sequentially connected. The index module obtains a correlation evaluation index data value from the input module, concludes and analyzes the historical statistical data of the input module, and establishes a correlation evaluation index system; the analysis module comprises a sample distribution verification sub-module, a Johnson distribution curve family calculation sub-module, a Copula joint distribution sub-module and a correlation analysis sub-module which are used for analyzing the correlation evaluation index system established by the index module; and the output module is used for outputting a power demand related factor analysis result. The method and the system have the advantages that the accuracy is good, and the diffusion and conduction effects of a power demand structure and power demand fluctuation can be revealed; the adaptability is strong, and the power grid enterprises are beneficial to comprehensively grasp the change rule of the total social power demand at different development stages.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field, in particular to a Johnson-Copula model-based system and method for analyzing factors related to total power demand. Background technique [0002] Power demand analysis is the basis for formulating power system development planning and dispatching and operation schemes. With the shortage of fossil energy, the aggravation of environmental pollution and the optimization and adjustment of economic structure, the coordinated development of power demand and economy and society has become an important issue that needs to be addressed urgently. Power demand can be divided into two categories: load demand and power demand. Load demand represents the electric power consumed by the power demand side, while power demand mainly refers to the total power consumption of power consumption on the power demand side, that is, the total power demand. The total power demand is not only related to the structural optimization o...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0637G06Q30/0201G06Q50/06Y02P90/82Y04S50/14
Inventor 雷铮柳璐程浩忠宣文博闫大威魏联滨王魁李媛媛李慧宋佳丁承第刘忠义毛华李娜田书欣
Owner STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER
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