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Method and system for product remaining life prediction based on q-type Weibull distribution

A Weibull distribution, life prediction technology, applied in prediction, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inconvenient engineering practice, complex calculation process, and huge amount of calculation.

Active Publication Date: 2020-07-07
NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0013] Aiming at the problem of using the maximum likelihood estimation method in the prior art to estimate the distribution parameters of the q-type Weibull distribution, the calculation process is very complicated, the calculation amount is very large, and it is not convenient for engineering practice. The problem of the lack of prediction technology for the remaining life of the product, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for predicting the remaining life of the product based on the q-type Weibull distribution and the contour error function

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  • Method and system for product remaining life prediction based on q-type Weibull distribution
  • Method and system for product remaining life prediction based on q-type Weibull distribution
  • Method and system for product remaining life prediction based on q-type Weibull distribution

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[0062] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments and the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that, in the drawings or description of the specification, the undescribed content and part of the English abbreviated content are well-known to those of ordinary skill in the art. Some specific parameters given in this embodiment are only for demonstration, and the values ​​can be changed to appropriate values ​​in different real-time modes.

[0063] This example uses the existing literature [Reference: Xu M, Droguett E, Lins I. On the q-weibull distribution for reliability applications: an adaptive hybrid artificial beecolony algorithm for parameter estimation. Reliability Engineering and SystemSafety, 2017,158:93–105 ], the calculation example is the 36 failure time data of 500 MW generator, the specific data are 0.0...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a method and system for predicting the remaining life of a product based on q-type Weibull distribution, including the following steps: (1) estimating the failure probability of each sample data; (2) calculating the parameters of q-type Weibull distribution based on the contour error function Point estimation; (3) According to the point estimation of q-type Weibull distribution parameters, the remaining life of the product is predicted. By linearizing the distribution function of the q-type Weibull distribution, and then defining the error function according to the idea of ​​distribution fitting, further simplifying the number of variables, reducing the dimensionality of the error function to a contour error function, and then solving the unconstrained optimization by the quasi-Newton method The model gives the point estimates of each distribution parameter, and finally combines the expectation of the remaining life of the product to obtain the predicted value of the remaining life of the product. The present invention well solves the problem of product remaining life prediction based on q-type Weibull distribution through the above steps, and the steps are simple and easy to calculate. The invention is applied in the field of reliability evaluation.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of reliability evaluation, and in particular to a method and system for predicting product remaining life based on q-type Weibull distribution and contour error function. Background technique [0002] In the field of reliability evaluation, it often involves the evaluation of product reliability. The remaining life is one of the common reliability indicators, which represents the remaining normal working time of the product after the current moment. The key to predict the remaining life of the product is to use the sample data of the product life test to estimate the parameters in the distribution that the product life obeys, and then combine the life distribution of the product to predict the remaining life. [0003] Existing research shows that such as figure 1 As shown, the failure law of the product in the full life cycle satisfies the "bathtub curve", which is composed of three curves, representing the early failure, ac...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F30/20
CPCG06Q10/04G06F2119/04G06F30/20
Inventor 贾祥程志君
Owner NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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