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Cloud-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for strong convective weather forecast

A technology of weather forecasting and strong convection, applied in the field of data assimilation, can solve the problem of low accuracy of convective system forecasting, achieve the effect of improving nowcasting, accuracy rate, and transformation model

Active Publication Date: 2019-09-03
STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SCI RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is: in order to solve the problem of low accuracy of convective system forecast in the prior art, provide a method and system for assimilating ground lightning data for strong convective weather forecast

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  • Cloud-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for strong convective weather forecast
  • Cloud-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for strong convective weather forecast
  • Cloud-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for strong convective weather forecast

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Embodiment Construction

[0053] It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the embodiments in the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0054] The technical solution of the present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0055] Embodiment of data assimilation method of ground lightning:

[0056] Step S1: Obtain the historical data of ground-to-ground lightning in 2014-2018, and perform quality control, namely:

[0057] Step S2: Obtain the three-dimensional radar echo mosaic data of the SWAN (Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast) system in 2014-2018;

[0058] Step S3: Use the ground lightning data and the vertical column maximum proxy radar echo of the three-dimensional radar echo mosaic data, and use the S-curve function y=exp(b+a / x) to carry out the calculation for mountainous areas (altitude greater than 1000 meters) and plains Non-linear fitting, to obtain a new statisti...

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Abstract

The application relates to a cloud-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for strong convective weather forecast. According to the application, nonlinear fitting is performed by usingan S-curve function for the plain and mountain areas separately, so as to obtain a new statistical relationship between the lightning frequency and the vertical column maximum proxy radar echo corresponding to the plain and mountain areas; the cloud-to-ground lightning data is converted into a three-dimensional proxy radar echo according to the obtained new statistical relationship; and the three-dimensional proxy radar echo is assimilated into a three-dimensional variational system to realize the assimilation of the cloud-to-ground lightning data. The application greatly improves the accuracy of precipitation prediction and solves the problem of low accuracy of convective system prediction in the prior art.

Description

technical field [0001] This application belongs to the technical field of data assimilation, and in particular relates to lightning data assimilation, in particular to a ground-to-ground lightning data assimilation method and system for severe convective weather forecasting. Background technique [0002] Lightning phenomenon is a relatively common natural discharge phenomenon in the atmosphere, and it is an indicator of strong convective weather system. Since the detection method of Doppler weather radar is cone scanning, it is impossible to obtain detection data in most of the space far away from the radar station and on the top of the radar station. With the diversification of detection methods, lightning observation data can detect strong convective weather more accurately. It has the advantages of high spatial resolution, wide detection range, small terrain influence, and continuous monitoring, which can make up for the gaps in radar observation. Therefore, in the rapid...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 李哲梁允刘善峰赖安伟王津宇孙玉婷王晓芳李帅马鹤翟崔春光
Owner STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SCI RES INST
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