Bus passenger flow volume prediction modeling method based on XGBoost model

Abstract

The invention discloses a bus passenger flow volume prediction modeling method based on an XGBoost model. According to the modeling method, the number of passengers getting on a bus at each station ineach time period every day is calculated by utilizing an IC card and GPS data, and the number of passengers getting on the bus at each station in the future time period of the bus is predicted by adopting an XGboost model in consideration of weather factors; the travel modes of the passengers are divided into regular travel passengers and random travel passengers, and the passenger flow distribution of get-off stations is predicted by utilizing the historical travel of the passengers and the get-on frequency of each station. A model is established based on bus card swiping data, and the method is suitable for a bus operation mode that card swiping records exist when a bus gets on the bus and card swiping is not conducted when the bus gets off the bus. The model is a mathematical and algorithm model for analyzing and predicting original data, can predict the getting-on passenger flow of all stations on a line by taking half an hour as a unit, and can obtain the distribution of the number of people getting off the bus at each station.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of intelligent transportation, and in particular relates to an XGBoost model-based method for forecasting and modeling bus passenger flow. The invention establishes a model based on the card swiping data of the bus, and is suitable for the operation mode of the bus in which there is a record of swiping the card when getting on the bus but without swiping the card when getting off the bus. This model is a mathematical and algorithmic model that analyzes and predicts raw data. It can predict the flow of boarding people at all stations on a line in units of half an hour, and obtain the number of people getting off at each station. distributed. Background technique [0002] Urban public transport is a very important means of transportation in every city, and is the main body of urban traffic, known as the arteries of urban muscles. In recent years, with the increase of urban population, the operating pressure of urban t...

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