Automatic nowcasting method of multi-monomer convection system short-time heavy rainfall event

Abstract

The invention discloses an automatic nowcasting method of a multi-monomer convection system short-time heavy rainfall event. The method comprises the following steps of identifying and tracking convection monomers; carrying out convection monomer identification by using a multi-threshold adaptive algorithm so as to acquire a convection monomer identification result simultaneously reserving a convection monomer core and surrounding related information; tracking the convection monomer by using an optical flow algorithm, and acquiring speeds of the convection monomers; identifying multi-monomer convection system; providing position prediction of the convection monomers at a next moment according to space-time correlation among the convection monomers in the multi-monomer convection system andthe monomer speeds, calculating a superposition coefficient among the convection monomers, establishing a correlation matrix according to the superposition coefficient, and obtaining an identification result of the multi-monomer convection system by using a transfer closure clustering method; and carrying out multi-monomer convection system diagram model establishment and short-time heavy rainfall event identification. By using the method, automatic multi-monomer convection system short-time heavy rainfall event nowcasting is realized, disasters are warned in time, and economic losses and casualties are reduced.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of meteorology, in particular to an automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in a multi-unit convection system. Background technique [0002] Short-term heavy precipitation (the short-term heavy precipitation referred to in this article is a precipitation event with an hourly precipitation greater than 20 mm specified by the China National Meteorological Center’s business standards) is one of the most important severe convective disasters in China. Hourly heavy precipitation emphasizes the convection and short duration of precipitation [1] . Because it has accumulated a large amount of precipitation in a short period of time, it often forms flash floods, causing urban waterlogging, mountain torrents, and debris flows. Nowcasting of short-term heavy precipitation has important application value for disaster prevention and disaster control. [0003] The existing short-term heavy precipitation now...

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Problems solved by technology

[0013] In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the present invention provides an automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in multi-cell convective systems, which solves the recognition rate of short-term heavy precipitation events in multi-cell convective systems in the prior art Low, it is impossible to accurately predict disasters, causing economic losses and casualties

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