An automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in multi-cell convective systems

Abstract

The invention discloses an automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in a multi-cell convective system, which comprises the following steps: identifying and tracking convective cells. Using the multi-threshold adaptive algorithm for convective cell identification, you can get the convective cell recognition result that retains the core and surrounding information of the convective cell, and use the optical flow algorithm to track the convective cell, and you can get the speed of the convective cell; Multi-cell convective system identification. According to the time-space correlation and cell velocity among the convective cells in the multi-cell convective system, the position prediction of the convective cell at the next moment is given, and the superposition coefficient between the convective cells is calculated, and the superposition coefficient is established according to the superposition coefficient Correlation matrix, using transitive closure clustering method to obtain the identification results of multi-cell convective system; construction of multi-cell convective system graph model and identification of short-term heavy precipitation events. The method realizes the automatic nowcasting of the short-term heavy precipitation event in the multi-unit convective system, carries out timely early warning of disasters, and reduces economic losses and casualties.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of meteorology, in particular to an automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in a multi-cell convective system. Background technique [0002] Short-term heavy rainfall (short-time heavy rainfall referred to in this article refers to precipitation events with an hourly precipitation greater than 20mm stipulated in the operational standards of the National Meteorological Center of China) is one of the most important severe convective disasters in China. Time-heavy precipitation emphasizes convection and short-duration of precipitation [1] . Because it has accumulated a large amount of precipitation in a short period of time, it often forms flash floods, causing urban waterlogging, mountain torrents, mudslides and other hazards. The nowcasting of short-term heavy precipitation has important application value for disaster prevention and disaster control. [0003] The existing short-term hea...

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Problems solved by technology

[0013] In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the present invention provides an automatic nowcasting method for short-term heavy precipitation events in multi-cell convective systems, which solves the recognition rate of short-term heavy precipitation events in multi-cell convective systems in the prior art Low, it is impossible to accurately predict disasters, causing economic losses and casualties

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