Method and system for predicting surface irradiance through sky image-irradiance model

A technology of model prediction and irradiance, applied in weather condition prediction, image analysis, image data processing, etc., can solve the problem of low prediction accuracy and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2022-03-15
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for predicting the surface irradiance through the sky image-irradiance model, aiming to solve the prob

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Embodiment Construction

[0098] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.

[0099] The invention proposes a method and system for predicting ground irradiance through a sky image-irradiance model.

[0100] Please refer to the attached figure 1 , in the first embodiment of the method for predicting the surface irradiance through the sky image-irradiance model proposed by the present invention, the following steps are included:

[0101] Step S110: Establish a prediction model of surface irradiance, and use historical sky images to train the prediction model of surface irradiance.

[0102] Specifically, a BP (back propagation) neural network and a support vector machine (SVM) are used to train the above-mentioned surface irradiance prediction models respectively, so as to obtain two different surface irradiance prediction models.

[0103] Step S120: Obtain a plurality of current sky images sep...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for predicting the irradiance of the ground surface through a sky image-irradiance model. The method proposed by the invention includes the following steps: establishing a prediction model of the irradiance of the ground surface, and using historical sky images to extract features to obtain the The surface irradiance prediction model is trained; a plurality of current sky images separated by a first preset time period are obtained; the current sky image is corrected to obtain a corrected current sky image; cloud displacement vector calculation method is used to obtain Cloud cluster displacement vector between adjacent sky images; Obtain the cloud cluster information that will block the sun part within the second preset time end for each current sky image; Obtain the first average RGB value and the first distance value; The mirror surface used by the sky imager is a fisheye convex mirror, so there is a certain distortion in the captured sky image; after correction processing, the accuracy of the first average RGB value and the first distance value can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a method and system for predicting ground irradiance through a sky image-irradiance model. Background technique [0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is one of the most promising renewable energy sources at present, and has received extensive attention and rapid development from all over the world. However, solar energy is an uncontrollable energy source with great randomness and volatility. In cloudy and non-clear weather environments, the output power of photovoltaic power plants fluctuates rapidly and randomly on a minute-level time scale due to cloud movement that will block the sun to varying degrees. [0003] With the gradual increase of photovoltaic penetration in the grid, this fluctuating power output will cause significant changes in the power characteristics of the power generation and load sides, which will have a greater impact on grid d...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06T3/00G06T3/60G06T7/70G06T7/90G06K9/62G06V10/774G06N3/08G01W1/10
CPCG06N3/084G06T3/0006G06T7/90G06T7/70G06T3/60G01W1/10G06F18/2411G06F18/214
Inventor 甄钊玄智铭王飞米增强
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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