Epidemic dynamics prediction method based on dynamic characteristics of multi-chamber model

A prediction method and a technology of dynamic characteristics, applied in the field of epidemic prevention, can solve problems such as large-scale infection, unreasonable distribution of transmission trend, resource allocation, economic loss allocation, fault window period, etc., to achieve strong operability and feasibility, and facilitate practical use Applied effect

Pending Publication Date: 2021-07-09
DALIAN UNIV OF TECH +1
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Problems solved by technology

Underestimation of the impact of the epidemic may lead to untimely response and the wrong window period causing widespread infection, and overestimation of the transmission trend will lead to unreasonable allocation of resources and huge economic losses

Method used

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  • Epidemic dynamics prediction method based on dynamic characteristics of multi-chamber model
  • Epidemic dynamics prediction method based on dynamic characteristics of multi-chamber model
  • Epidemic dynamics prediction method based on dynamic characteristics of multi-chamber model

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific examples.

[0035] Consider the first wave of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Spain in 2020. A prediction method for the new crown epidemic based on the dynamic characteristics of the multi-compartment model. First, a refined compartment model is established that considers the presence or absence of detection, whether there are symptoms, and whether to be admitted to the hospital, then calculates the variable reproduction number, and finally fits the spread of the epidemic. Include the following steps:

[0036] Step 1: Construct a refined compartment model of the spread of the epidemic.

[0037] The SPMILHRD compartment model describing the spread of the new coronavirus is established as follows.

[0038]

[0039] Among them, the population characteristics of each warehouse: S: susceptible, not infected; P: infected, not detected, asymptomatic; M: infected, de...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an epidemic dynamics prediction method based on the dynamic characteristics of a multi-chamber model, and belongs to the field of epidemic prevention. In order to accurately describe a propagation chain of epidemic diseases and predict epidemic situation development, firstly, an epidemic disease kinetic model for refining bin division is established, the propagation rule of epidemic disease diffusion is described, and whether differentiated infected are or are not confirmed cases, have or do not have symptoms and can or cannot be hospitalized are considered; secondly, a time-varying regeneration number is calculated, and the dynamic characteristics of epidemic propagation are depicted based on the time-varying regeneration number; and finally, main parameters of a biological mathematical equation are estimated, and epidemic dynamic situations are fitted, and a diffusion trend is simulated and predicted by using the kinetic model. According to the method, the dynamic transmission characteristics of the infectious diseases can be accurately described under the framework of the bin model, the diffusion trend of the infectious diseases can be further predicted, a theoretical basis is provided for scientific epidemic prevention and accurate strategy implementation of the emergent infectious diseases; and the method has important scientific significance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of epidemic prevention and relates to an epidemic dynamics prediction method based on the dynamic characteristics of a multi-compartment model. Background technique [0002] Periodic outbreaks of epidemics have caused huge damage to life and health, social economy, and ecosystems in local areas and even worldwide, and have been severely damaging the public governance system of the economy and society. Due to its strong transmission ability and unknown nature, major infectious diseases broke out at an exponential rate in the early stage. Once the epidemic prevention and control misses the window period, the severity of its spread will be difficult to estimate. The most difficult part of controlling the spread of the epidemic is to accurately describe the virus transmission chain and predict the development of the epidemic. The accurate prediction of disease dynamics determines whether the emergency management mechanis...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G16H50/50
CPCG16H50/50G16H50/80
Inventor 王昕炜郑钦月包春兵孟庆春张盛彭海军李云鹏陈飙松姜曼頔
Owner DALIAN UNIV OF TECH
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