Prediction method of total wind electricity power in area

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation power prediction and relates to a prediction method of total wind electricity power facing to an area. The method includes step one, selecting represented wind power stations in the area, and further obtaining an output power predicted value of each represented wind power station; step two, establishing mapping models by a radial basis function neural network, and computing a total wind electricity power predicted value in the area according to the output power predicted value of each represented wind power station; and step three, outputting the total wind electricity power predicted value in the area. The prediction method has the advantages that the usage and the operation are convenient, the input and output are simple, the prediction accuracy is high, the error is small, the expandability is good, the application is flexible and the like, and when the predicted power of the represented wind power stations is known, the total wind electricity power predicted value in the area can be directly computed by the mapping models; and when the predicted power of the represented wind power stations is unknown, the mapping models can access to the presented wind power stations, the mapping models can be driven by numerical weather prediction (NWP) data of the represented wind power stations, and the total wind electricity power predicted value in the area can be further computed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of forecasting wind power generation power, and relates to a forecasting method for the total wind power in an area. Background technique [0002] The output power of wind power has strong randomness, and the current forecast level cannot meet the needs of the actual operation of the power system. Accurate regional wind power forecasting is conducive to the power dispatching department to arrange the power generation plan of the regional power system, ensure power quality, and reduce system This is of great significance for reducing the operating cost of the power system. At present, the domestic wind power forecast mainly focuses on the forecast of the power of a single wind farm, and the forecast of the total power of the wind farms in a certain area is relatively small. [0003] The total power of regional wind power refers to the sum of the power of all grid-connected wind farms connected to the grid at...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

First, many wind farms have not installed wind power forecasting systems

Secondly, the accuracy of the prediction results of various wind farms varies, and the direct addition may amplify the error, and the results obtained are not credible

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